Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On December 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract dropped 3.77% to 121,580 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate stayed at 115,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) held at 110,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 19,491 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,864 tons, lithium production from lepidolite rose by 40 tons to 2,866 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 20 tons to 3,075 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 36 tons to 2,356 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 119 tons to 17,726 tons, and the inventory decreased by 89 tons to 18,002 tons. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,309 tons to 90,752 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1,386 tons to 100,885 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, the inventory in other links increasing by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and the upstream inventory decreasing by 239 tons to 17,851 tons [3]. - Although the inventory performance of consulting agencies shows a divergence, considering that cathode factories are expected to carry out maintenance in January, the fundamentals are weakening marginally. From the perspective of inventory turnover, the downstream replenishment motivation may be reflected in the price decline. However, it is necessary to actually pay attention to whether the price transmission to the downstream is smooth and whether strong demand can be verified. Additionally, due to the influence of holidays, the position - holding situation may amplify volatility [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2,760 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 119,540 yuan/ton, up 1,560 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The prices of lithium ore such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide remained stable, except that the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.28 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained at 166,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1,990 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium remained stable, and the price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly, such as 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][10]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][20]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][33]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May to December 2025 [35][37]. - Production Costs: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].
碳酸锂日报-20251231
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 05:27