甲醇日报：关注后续美伊局势-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the methanol market. On the port side, Trump's threat against Iran stimulates the methanol futures market, but the port basis weakens. The short - term reality is still weak, with inventories in Jiangsu ports rising due to delayed unloading and reduced demand for inland pick - up. Although Iran's methanol production is at a low level, the decline in shipping volume needs further confirmation. For MTO, there is a possibility of more equipment maintenance in January. On the inland side, it is the off - season for downstream industries, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding period. The low number of orders and failures in auctions have reduced the demand for inland pick - up from the port. Traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions [2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report may use figures such as "Methanol Taicang Basis and Methanol Main Contract", "Methanol Spot - Main Futures in Different Regions", etc. to analyze the methanol basis and inter - period structure, but specific data analysis is not provided in the current text [7][9]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The report uses figures like "Inner Mongolia Coal - based Methanol Production Profit", "East China MTO Profit (PP&EG Type)", and "Taicang Methanol - CFR China Import Spread" to analyze relevant profit situations, but no specific profit data analysis is given [28][24]. III. Methanol Production, Inventory - In terms of production, the report mentions the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations) and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated operations). In terms of inventory, it includes methanol port total inventory and inland factory sample inventory. The current port inventory in Jiangsu has reached a high level, and the inland factory inventory is in the rebuilding period [2][3][31]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report analyzes regional price differences through figures such as "Lubei - Northwest - 280", "East China - Inner Mongolia - 550", etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is 23 yuan/ton (+8), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 176 yuan/ton (+25) [2][35]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - The report uses figures like "Shandong Formaldehyde Production Gross Margin", "Jiangsu Acetic Acid Production Gross Margin", etc. to analyze the profit of traditional downstream industries. The acetic acid operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, the MTBE operating rate is still good, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously buy on dips for hedging. - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4].