有色商品日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 3.99% to $12,673.5 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract rose 1.85% to 99,220 yuan per ton. The import of domestic refined copper spot remained at a loss. The Fed's meeting minutes indicated a possible further interest - rate cut. In China, recent policies boosted market confidence. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose. Downstream procurement became cautious, and copper prices were repaired due to domestic stimulus policies, but investors were reminded to operate cautiously during the New Year holiday [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. The SMM alumina price declined, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Alumina factories had high ore reserves, and the cost of alumina continued to decline. The pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation increased, and short - term macro - micro differences restricted the upward movement of near - month contracts [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.47% to $16,780 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 3.64% to 134,400 yuan per ton. The planned nickel ore output in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly. The government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula. The fundamentals showed that nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and stainless - steel inventory decreased. The theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. Supported by news, nickel prices strengthened, but the actual implementation remained uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price increases, import losses, macro - policy impacts, inventory changes, and downstream procurement trends. In the domestic market, policies boosted confidence, and copper prices were repaired, but holiday risks existed [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight price increases, price and inventory changes in the spot market, alumina cost reduction, and inventory accumulation pressure [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight price increases, news of production reduction and policy changes in Indonesia, stable domestic nickel ore prices, and changes in the stainless - steel and nickel - sulfate markets. News boosted nickel prices, but the actual situation was uncertain [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Provided price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in spot prices, scrap copper prices, and inventory levels [3]. - Lead: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in lead prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory [3]. - Aluminum: Showed price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in aluminum prices, aluminum - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - Nickel: Offered price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in nickel prices, nickel - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - Zinc: Gave price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in zinc prices, zinc - alloy prices, and inventory [6]. - Tin: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in tin prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Included charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][18][19][20]. - LME Inventory: Had charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Provided charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Included charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the non - ferrous metals research field, and are responsible for different research directions [47][48].