黑色商品日报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the performance of various black commodities on December 31, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides insights into their price movements, supply - demand fundamentals, and future trends, suggesting that most commodities will show a narrow - range or wide - range oscillatory trend in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume declined. The supply from steel mills decreased, which would relieve market pressure to some extent. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton to 789 yuan/ton, a 0.9% decline. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while that from other countries decreased slightly. The global shipment reached a high level. The demand side was experiencing a stable output of molten iron, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The ore price is expected to oscillate under the influence of both long and short factors [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1119.5 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase. The supply side faced more safety inspections near the year - end, and downstream demand was cautious. The coking coal futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1715 yuan/ton, a 2.05% increase. The fourth round of price cuts in the coke market started. The demand from steel mills was stable, but their purchasing willingness was low. It is expected that the coke futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Ferromanganese Silicon: The ferromanganese silicon futures price strengthened with an oscillatory trend, with the main contract closing at 5942 yuan/ton, a 1.09% increase. The weekly output increased due to new production capacity and enterprise conversion. The demand was supported by pre - holiday purchasing from some steel mills. Inventory reached a new high, and the cost was supported by the firmness of manganese ore prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened with an oscillatory trend, with the main contract closing at 5750 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase. The production was a mix of reduction and resumption, and the output decreased by 1.3% to 9.85 tons last week. The demand was supported by pre - holiday restocking from steel mills, and the inventory decreased. The cost was basically stable. It is expected to remain firm and oscillate in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Data on contract spreads for different commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [2]. - Basis: The latest basis values and their changes for different contracts of various commodities are presented, along with the latest spot prices and their changes [2]. - Profit and Spread: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc.) is given, including the latest values and their changes [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][8][9][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Graphs display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Graphs show the inter - commodity spreads, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, etc. [43][45][47]. - Rebar Profits: Graphs display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [49][50][52][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes members like Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [55][56].