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Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]