集运日报：节前观望情绪较强盘面震荡运行已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主元旦快乐！-20251231

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday sentiment is cautious, with the market fluctuating. After suggesting taking profits, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [5]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected 54.6 and a previous 54.6 [5]. c. Futures Market - On December 30, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.1, down 2.08%. The trading volume was 24,800 lots, and the open interest was 27,900 lots, a decrease of 2582 lots from the previous day. Due to strong pre - holiday caution and some long - position funds leaving the market, the main contract fluctuated downward [6]. d. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: After the main contract reached a new high, it was recommended to take full profits. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see and not to add more positions [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [7]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [7]. f. Geopolitical Event - On December 28 (local time), the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed the 2026 tri - military cooperation work plan with the military representatives of Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, as well as bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8].