供需趋弱，成本托底

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for the caustic soda industry [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply of caustic soda will increase, domestic demand support will be insufficient, and export growth will decline. The overall market supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose, with limited upward driving force. The price may show a combination of shock bottom - building and periodic weak rebounds, and the price center is expected to move down slightly. However, the downward space should not be overly pessimistic. The high profit sensitivity and production flexibility of the chlor - alkali industry will support the price, and caustic soda is unlikely to run significantly below the cost line for a long time. The main operating range of the main contract price may be between 2000 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton [3][67] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Market Review - In 2025, the caustic soda market was a repeated tug - of - war between expectations and reality. The main contract price ranged from 2092 yuan/ton to 3346 yuan/ton. The market can be divided into four stages: the first stage (from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival), the market expected a tight supply of caustic soda in the first half of the year, and the spot market followed the rise, pushing up the price; the second stage (after the Spring Festival to June), the new alumina plant commissioning was delayed, the price of alumina decreased, and the cost of caustic soda decreased, leading to a sharp decline in the caustic soda price; the third stage (July to August), the "anti - involution" market and the improvement of non - aluminum demand led to a rebound in the price; the fourth stage (September to December), the non - aluminum demand was limited, the alumina supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the high - supply pressure led to a decline in the price [12][13] 3.2 Supply: Low - speed Growth of Caustic Soda Supply in 2026 - Limited Newly Put - into - Operation Capacity in 2026: In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry was more than 3 million tons/year, but the actual new capacity was only 1.09 million tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of about 2.2%. In 2026, the planned production capacity is 4.77 million tons/year, but considering issues such as waste salt treatment and liquid chlorine digestion, the new plant commissioning uncertainty is still high, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be only around 3.3% [19][20][21] - Low - speed Growth of Caustic Soda Production: In 2025, the average operating load of the caustic soda industry was around 87.5%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 39.929 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In 2026, production is expected to grow with capacity, but the growth rate may be lower than the capacity growth rate. The average operating load may decline, and the annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2.2% [25][26] 3.3 Domestic Demand: Alumina Demand Peaks, Non - aluminum Support is Insufficient - Alumina Supply Surplus May Bring Negative Feedback to Caustic Soda Price: Alumina demand accounts for about 30% of caustic soda demand. In 2026, the domestic alumina production increase plan is 14.95 million tons/year, with an additional caustic soda demand of about 300,000 tons. However, due to the supply surplus of alumina, there is a risk of production reduction, which may reduce the caustic soda demand by about 500,000 tons. Whether alumina production is reduced or not, it will bring negative feedback to the caustic soda price [31][36][38] - Non - aluminum Downstream Demand is Stable and Lacks Highlights: Non - aluminum downstream demand is relatively scattered, and the demand growth is expected to be stable, lacking significant elasticity. It is difficult to be the key variable driving the caustic soda price. The core of the caustic soda demand contradiction is the continuous suppression of the caustic soda price elasticity by the alumina supply surplus. The caustic soda demand growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 1% [44][54] 3.4 Export: The Growth Rate of Caustic Soda Export is Expected to Slow Down in 2026 - In 2025, from January to November, China's caustic soda export volume was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. Indonesia became the largest export destination. In 2026, caustic soda exports are expected to continue to grow, but due to the global alumina supply surplus and the substitution trend of magnesium oxide, the export growth rate is expected to slow down, and the support for the caustic soda price will weaken [54][65] 3.5 Investment Advice - In 2026, the caustic soda market will be in a wide - range shock pattern of "supported by cost at the bottom and suppressed by supply - demand at the top". The main operating range of the main contract price may be between 2000 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton [3][67]