2025年12月PMI分析：为什么12月PMI开始扩张？

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up from 49.6%[1] - The services business activity index is slightly up at 49.7%, compared to 49.5% previously[1] Group 2: Key Drivers of PMI Increase - Policy measures have stimulated investment stabilization, with a central government investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan announced[2] - New export orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 49%, marking the first increase since March 2025[2] - The later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) has resulted in less disruption to December's physical workload compared to previous years[2] Group 3: Production and Demand Insights - The production index increased to 51.7% from 50%, while the new orders index rose to 50.8% from 49.2%[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment down 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%[3] - The construction sector, including housing and infrastructure, has shown signs of recovery, indicating effective fund allocation[3] Group 4: External Demand and Price Trends - The new export orders index has shown a significant increase, reflecting strong external demand amid global fiscal and monetary easing[4] - The producer price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[7] - The gap between raw material prices and producer prices remains significant at 4.2 percentage points[7]