12月PMI：重回扩张有何不寻常？

Group 1: PMI Overview - In December 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone[4] - This is the first time in eight months that the PMI has returned to the expansion zone, indicating a significant reversal of the typical seasonal decline usually seen in December[4] - Key indicators showing unusual growth include the PMI Production Activity Expectation Index (up 2.8 percentage points), PMI Production Index (up 2.2 percentage points), and PMI Purchase Volume (up 1.8 percentage points) compared to historical averages[4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Expansion - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year led companies to adjust production schedules to avoid disruptions, resulting in a "production rush" phenomenon[4] - Inefficient low-cost production capacities have been curtailed, allowing high-efficiency and compliant enterprises to expand production as market conditions improve[4] - The price index reflects the deepening effects of "anti-involution" policies, with the PMI Raw Material Purchase Price Index decreasing by 0.5 percentage points while the PMI Factory Price Index increased by 0.7 percentage points[4] Group 3: Export and Non-Manufacturing Insights - The PMI New Export Orders Index increased by 1.4 percentage points in December, contrary to the typical seasonal decline, indicating enhanced resilience in Chinese exports[4] - The construction PMI surged by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, returning to the expansion zone, supported by new policy financial tools and project acceleration[4] - In contrast, the service sector PMI only slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points and remains in the contraction zone, highlighting uneven recovery in domestic consumption[4]