Policy Overview - The 2026 policy aims to promote high-quality economic development and consumption upgrades through systematic adjustments in funding, support scope, and subsidy models, characterized by "total adjustment, structural focus, and efficiency improvement" compared to 2025[2][9]. Support Scope - The support scope for equipment updates has expanded to include new projects such as installing elevators in old residential areas and upgrading facilities in elderly care institutions[3][10]. - The scope for consumer goods replacement has contracted from 12 categories to 6 for home appliances, while the number of digital smart products has increased from 3 to 4, adding smart glasses[3][11]. Funding Scale - The first batch of funding for the 2026 replacement policy is set at 625 billion yuan, with an expected total funding of 2,500 billion yuan for the year, a 16.7% decrease from 3,000 billion yuan in 2025[3][13]. - If the funding follows a high-low distribution pattern, the total for 2026 could be around 2,000 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% year-on-year decline[3][13]. Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards have been adjusted to focus on high-efficiency products, with a reduction in support for lower-efficiency appliances and a shift in automotive subsidies towards new energy vehicles[3][14]. - Specific adjustments include a decrease in the subsidy for high-efficiency appliances from 20% to 15% and a tightening of purchase limits to one unit per category[3][14]. Execution Efficiency - The policy will start on January 1, 2026, immediately following the notification on December 30, 2025, improving execution efficiency by eliminating the previous staggered rollout[3][15]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a fair business environment and preventing fraudulent claims, thereby enhancing the effective use of funds[3][16]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, adjustments to the replacement policy rules, and the possibility that the policy effects may fall short of expectations[3][4][17].
2026年两新政策总量微调，结构聚焦
China Post Securities·2025-12-31 06:54