广发宏观：PMI年末超季节性反弹的可能原因

Group 1: PMI Overview - December PMI overall rebounded, with manufacturing PMI rising 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing 0.7 points to 50.2[4] - Composite PMI for December was 50.7, up 1.0 points from previous values, marking a rebound after consecutive declines in October and November[4] - Manufacturing PMI in December is notably higher than the ten-year average decline of 0.3 points for the same period, indicating a seasonal anomaly[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI rebound of 1.5 points, while small enterprises experienced a contraction of 0.5 points, reflecting a divergence in business conditions[5] - December BCI was 49.8, down from 51.6, and EPMI was 49.1, down from 52.7, indicating a significant seasonal decline[6] - Construction PMI surged to 52.8 in December from below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments[10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Indicators - Supply and demand indicators showed synchronized rebounds, with production and procurement indices rising 1.7 and 1.6 points respectively[6] - New orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 points and 1.4 points, respectively, indicating improved business activity expectations[6] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.5, up from 56.2, suggesting positive sentiment among businesses[8] Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material procurement price index slightly decreased to 53.1 from 53.6, while the factory price index increased to 48.9 from 48.2, indicating a mixed price environment[10] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to continue influencing price dynamics positively[9] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in the external economic and financial environment, geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in construction activity in Q1[12] - The report suggests that domestic policy benefits and improvements in fundamentals may create favorable conditions for Q1 data[12]