2025年12月PMI数据点评：外贸环境稳定期，制造业景气重返扩张区间

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, marking a return to the expansion zone after 8 months[2] - The production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, attributed to reduced uncertainties in the external trade environment[2] - The new orders index improved by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, indicating the first return to expansion in the second half of the year[2] Group 2: Trade and Pricing Dynamics - New export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, with a significant slowdown in contraction[2] - The factory price index's contraction pace continued to slow, while raw material purchase prices expanded, indicating ongoing operational pressures for enterprises[2] - Inventory levels for raw materials and finished products continued to decline, reflecting a de-stocking trend[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone[3] - The construction sector's business activity index surged by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather and upcoming holidays[3] - The service sector's business activity index saw a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The composite PMI output index rose by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7%, driven by the rebound in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors[3] - The outlook for January 2026 suggests continued expansion in manufacturing, supported by a stable external trade environment and incremental policy implementations[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy deployments and uncertainties in the external environment due to rising global trade protectionism[3]