供需前景收紧，棉市料震荡向上

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for cotton is "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply-demand outlook for the cotton market is tightening, and the cotton market is expected to fluctuate upward. In 2026, the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with an estimated operating range of 60 - 80 cents per pound. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also generally optimistic, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton [1][2][165][167] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025: Trade War and Strong Demand Caused Volatility in Zhengzhou Cotton, with a Strong Domestic and Weak Overseas Performance - In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton showed a wide - range volatile trend. The trade war intensified the fluctuations, but strong domestic demand provided support. The main contract price of Zhengzhou cotton operated between 12,300 - 14,300 yuan per ton, while the overseas market was generally weak, operating between 60 - 70 cents per pound [14] - From January to March, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively resistant to decline compared to the overseas market, and the internal - external price difference widened. The overseas market was weak due to the expected supply - demand loosening and trade war concerns [14] - From April to May, trade policy changes led to increased volatility in both domestic and overseas markets. Zhengzhou cotton first fell and then rose, and the internal - external price difference first narrowed and then expanded [15] - From June to August, rapid domestic commercial inventory depletion and a strong commodity atmosphere drove up Zhengzhou cotton, while the overseas market was weak [15] - In September, the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production led to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, and the internal - external price difference narrowed [16] - From October to December, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, and the internal - external price difference widened further. The overseas market was under pressure due to weak export demand and seasonal supply pressure [16] 2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 2.1 United States - 25/26 Season: The supply of US cotton was relatively loose. The planting area decreased by 16.8% to 9.3 million acres, the yield decreased slightly by 1% to 3.107 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 12.5% to 980,000 tons. The export signing progress was slow, but there is a possibility of improvement in the second half of the season [20][29][30] - 26/27 Season: The planting area is expected to decrease by about 3.3% to around 9 million acres. The yield is estimated to be between 2.94 - 3.31 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten, and the ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [34][35][45] 2.2 India - 25/26 Season: The production is expected to be stable at around 5.225 million tons, but there is a possibility of downward adjustment. The consumption may be revised downwards due to trade issues. CCI's large - scale purchases will increase import demand [50][51][53] - 26/27 Season: The planting area is expected to decline due to low cotton - grain price ratios and flood - damaged farmer incomes [62] 2.3 Brazil - The 26/27 season's planting and production are expected to decline slightly. As of December 20, 2025, the planting progress was 16.9%, 3 percentage points slower than the previous year. Different institutions have different estimates of the production decline, generally around 5 - 10% [65][66][67] 2.4 Global - 25/26 Season: The global cotton supply - demand is in a loose balance, with production slightly increasing by 0.4% to 26.081 million tons and consumption slightly decreasing by 0.3% to 25.824 million tons [70] - 26/27 Season: The global planting area is expected to decrease by about 5%, and the production is estimated to decline by 800,000 - 1.5 million tons. The consumption is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% (310,000 tons), resulting in a supply - demand shortage of 800,000 - 1.5 million tons [73] 2.5 Summary and Market Outlook of the International Cotton Market - The market focus will gradually shift to the 26/27 season. The global economic recovery is expected to improve cotton demand, and the supply - demand situation in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. The ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [82][85][86] 3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.1 25/26 Season Xinjiang Cotton - The output is expected to increase, with the estimated output between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. The seed - cotton purchase price was stable, and the ginning mills' processing and sales progress was fast [87][91][94] 3.2 2026 Xinjiang Cotton Planting Area - It is likely to be reduced, but the reduction幅度 is uncertain. Policy regulation and farmers' planting willingness are the key factors [95][97][99] 3.3 Commercial Inventory - Although the domestic cotton production increased in the 25/26 season, the commercial inventory was basically the same as the previous year. The market is worried about a repeat of the supply shortage in the 24/25 season [101][102] 3.4 Imports - Cotton: The import quota is expected to be strictly controlled in the 25/26 season, with an estimated commercial import volume of about 1.1 million tons [104] - Cotton Yarn: The import volume is expected to increase by more than 300,000 tons, depending on the future internal - external cotton price difference [105] 3.5 Downstream Textile Industry - The industry is highly competitive, with low profits. The cotton - yarn social inventory is relatively healthy, but there are blockages in the downstream weaving mills and their subsequent sectors [110][113][119] 3.6 Terminal Textile and Apparel - Export: The export of textile and apparel is resilient. The demand from Belt and Road countries stabilizes textile exports, and the export to the US and the EU is expected to improve in 2026 [127][134][139] - Domestic Demand: It is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, supported by policy but also affected by factors such as the real - estate market and industry competition [157] 3.7 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - 25/26 Season: The supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with an estimated output of about 7.7 million tons, an import of about 1.1 million tons, and a consumption of 8.6 - 8.7 million tons [160] - 26/27 Season: The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and the state may need to issue additional import quotas or conduct state reserve sales [162] 4. Summary and Outlook - Internationally, the supply - demand outlook is tightening, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish in 2026, with an estimated range of 60 - 80 cents per pound [165] - Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is generally optimistic in 2026, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion, imports, and consumption [167] 5. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: It is recommended to take a long position on dips [4][170] - Arbitrage: Consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread, but the weakening space of the spread is expected to be limited [4][170]