Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-31 07:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in 2026, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of EVs and boost sales, particularly for mid to high-priced models [2]. - The implementation of a large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policy reflects the government's commitment to supporting the consumption of new energy vehicles [2]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for lithium batteries in 2026, driven by the sustained growth in electric vehicle sales and the continuation of the old-for-new policy [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, with personal consumers receiving up to 20,000 yuan for qualifying new energy vehicles [2]. - The policy aims to support the transition to low-emission vehicles, including electric trucks and city buses, thereby alleviating concerns about subsidy reductions for electric heavy trucks [2]. Market Performance - In 2025, the old-for-new policy significantly boosted the sales of new energy vehicles, with production and sales reaching 14.91 million and 14.78 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [2]. - The report notes that the domestic power battery sales reached 1,044.3 GWh in 2025, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market for battery manufacturers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading battery companies such as CATL, Zhongxin Innovation, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as material suppliers like Hunan Youneng and Tianwei Technology, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2]. - The anticipated increase in electric vehicle penetration and battery demand presents a favorable investment landscape for stakeholders in the new energy sector [2].