行业点评报告：银行视角解码《金融稳定报告（2025）

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing global debt levels, with public debt expected to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2024, accounting for approximately 93% of global GDP. In China, the government is the main driver of leverage, while corporate leverage is slowing down, and households are continuing to deleverage [12][13] - The asset scale of "green zone" banks has increased, with 94.6% of banks rated in the "green zone," indicating overall financial stability and risk control in the banking sector [4][18] - Stress tests conducted on 3,235 banks show that they have strong resilience against macroeconomic shocks, with an overall capital adequacy ratio of 16.64%. However, credit risk remains a significant concern, with non-performing loan rates projected to rise under severe stress scenarios [5][30] - The central bank is enhancing macro-prudential management to support the stable development of the real estate market, implementing various financial policies to mitigate risks and improve market activity [6][44] Summary by Sections 1. Government Leverage and Debt Resolution - Global debt levels have reached historical highs, with China's government increasing leverage while corporate leverage slows and households continue to deleverage. This has led to a divergence in credit demand, favoring corporate loans over retail loans [12][14] - The report indicates that the resolution of operational debts for financing platforms is becoming a key focus for the government, with significant reductions in the scale of these debts expected [13][14] 2. Banking Sector Ratings and Risk Management - The central bank rated 3,529 banks, with 94.6% in the "green zone," reflecting a trend of increasing asset scale among low-risk banks and a reduction in high-risk institutions [4][18] - The number of banks has decreased significantly due to mergers and regulatory actions, indicating a consolidation in the banking sector [20] 3. Stress Testing Results - Stress tests reveal that banks maintain a strong capital adequacy ratio under various adverse scenarios, with projected declines in capital adequacy under severe stress [5][30] - The sensitivity tests show that domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) have a stronger capacity to withstand asset quality deterioration compared to non-D-SIBs [37] 4. Macro-Prudential Management and Real Estate Support - The central bank is actively enhancing its macro-prudential management functions to prevent systemic financial risks, with a focus on supporting the real estate market through various financial policies [6][44] - Specific measures include optimizing mortgage policies and providing financial support for housing projects, which are expected to improve market activity [45][46]