Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-growth player in the hardware industry, leveraging cost reduction and brand strength to create "high-end cost performance" [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% in revenue and 59% in net profit from 2019 to 2024, showcasing its robust growth even in a challenging real estate environment [9][47]. - The growth sources are analyzed from three perspectives: product strategy focusing on cost reduction and popular products, channel expansion through offline and online sales, and a market strategy that emphasizes high-end cost performance [9][10][48]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 35.95 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 7.06 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33 [2][7]. - The company expects to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 45.25 billion yuan in 2026 and 56.53 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 9.42 billion yuan and 12.37 billion yuan respectively [2][7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 37.8% in 2025 to 39.7% in 2027, reflecting ongoing cost control and efficiency improvements [2]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by its ability to reduce costs through increased self-production and a high proportion of standard parts, which enhances operational efficiency [10][55]. - The product mix includes a strong focus on basic hardware, which has seen a CAGR of 64% from 2019 to 2024, significantly contributing to revenue growth [48]. - The company has successfully transitioned from increasing the number of distributors to enhancing the quality of existing distributors, leading to substantial growth in single-store sales [9][10]. Market Positioning - The company adopts a "high-end cost performance" strategy, effectively competing against foreign brands and private labels, thus capturing market share from both segments [9][10]. - The brand has received multiple prestigious design awards, enhancing its competitive edge in the hardware sector [9][10]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with plans for a new facility expected to enhance its ability to produce core components like hinges and guides [55][61]. - The implementation of automated production processes has led to a substantial increase in output per employee, particularly in basic hardware [63]. Research and Development - R&D expenditures have risen from 29 million yuan in 2019 to 111 million yuan in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [42][45].
悍高集团（001221）：降本与品牌力打造“高端性价比”，护航高增长