国贸期货瓶片短纤数据日报-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion [2]. - The demand side remains robust, with high PTA operation rates in China, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics [2]. - New polyester installations drive high polyester operating loads, maintaining high PTA consumption. Market inventory - building intentions increase, and the basis strengthens rapidly. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback. PTA prices are significantly boosted under the enthusiastic sentiment of commodities, and the costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators 3.1 Price and Spread Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5065 to 5100, a change of 35; MEG domestic price increased from 3687 to 3694, a change of 7 [2]. - PTA closing price rose from 5122 to 5144, an increase of 22; MEG closing price rose from 3817 to 3847, an increase of 30 [2]. - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 to 6640, a change of 20; the short - fiber basis decreased from 120 to 86, a change of - 34 [2]. - The 2 - 3 spread increased from 6 to 8, a change of 2; the polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1345 to 1365, a change of 20 [2]. - The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filling polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all increased by 28, while the foreign - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 795 [2]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 462 to 458, a change of - 4 [2]. - The price of T32S pure polyester yarn increased from 10380 to 10400, a change of 20; the T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3760 [2]. - The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16370; the cotton 328 price increased from 15240 to 15280, a change of 40 [2]. - The polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1220 to 1192, a change of - 28 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7216 to 7215, a change of - 1; the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 450 to 417, a change of - 33 [2]. - The price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged at 7775 [2]. 3.2 Operating Rate and Sales - to - Production Ratio - The direct - spun staple fiber operating rate (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio increased from 54.00% to 55.00%, a change of 1.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 30 to 6564. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, while trader prices slightly decreased. Downstream buyers only made rigid - demand purchases, and on - site transactions were light [2]. - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation prices of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets were 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining flat compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly. Most supply - side offers remained unchanged. The market negotiation atmosphere was cautious, and downstream terminal demand was relatively stable, with the market negotiation center temporarily stable [2].