2026固收年报：锚定下移，震荡趋稳

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 was a transformative year for the bond market, with yield trends shifting from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, trading strategies evolving, market scale expanding, and asset correlations changing [3][15]. - In 2026, China's economy will feature "internal improvement, external stability, and structural optimization", with GDP growth target around 5%. Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", and fiscal policy will be "actively expansionary" [4][5]. - The bond market in 2026 will see a positive supply trend, with institutional behavior showing "stable but changing allocation and contracting and differentiating trading". The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state [7][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - Yield Trend: Yields shifted from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, with a pattern of "rising - falling - rising - fluctuating" for long - term yields and short - term yields anchored around policy rates [15][16]. - Bond Products: The bond market became a core financing channel for economic transformation, with a high - stock, fast - expanding, and government - bond - concentrated structure [18]. - Trading Strategy: Financial institutions' trading strategies shifted from "trend trading" to a "coupon + band" composite strategy, with commercial banks and insurance institutions as the main holders of interest - rate bonds and brokers and overseas institutions increasing market volatility [23]. - Asset Linkage: The traditional linkage between treasury bond yields and traditional assets (A - shares, US stocks, gold) was broken, showing "three reversals" [29]. 2. Fundamentals: Internal Improvement, Gradual Progress - GDP Growth Target: In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was basically achieved, with a "high - then - low" pattern. In 2026, the target may remain around 5% [37][38]. - Consumption Growth: In 2025, consumption momentum slowed and there was a clear trend of consumption downgrade. In 2026, consumption will moderately recover, but factors such as policy support, income, and balance - sheet repair will limit the improvement [41][42]. - Investment Growth: In 2025, investment growth turned negative, showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, investment is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment as the core driving forces, and the decline in real - estate investment will narrow slightly [44][45][47]. - Export Growth: In 2025, exports showed strong resilience. In 2026, export growth is expected to remain stable, supported by factors such as diversified trade markets, upgraded export product structures, and enterprise overseas investment [52][53]. - Price Movement: In 2025, prices rebounded at a low level. In 2026, CPI will moderately recover, PPI's decline will narrow, and the GDP deflator is expected to gradually recover but may still be in the negative range [59]. 3. Policy Front: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Actively Expansionary Fiscal Policy - Monetary Policy: In 2025, monetary policy was moderately loose and operation became more refined. In 2026, it will continue the "moderately loose" tone, focusing on precise measures and cross - cycle balance, with policy tools transforming from quantity - based to price - based [62][63]. - Fiscal Policy: In 2025, fiscal policy was significantly expansionary, with a higher deficit rate. In 2026, it will continue the "actively expansionary" main line, with characteristics of "stable total growth, optimized structure, and front - loaded rhythm" [68]. 4. Bond Supply: Scale Expansion and Structural Optimization - 2025: The supply of interest - rate bonds increased significantly, with government bonds leading the expansion and a front - loaded fiscal leverage rhythm [75]. - 2026: The bond market supply will be positive, featuring "scale expansion, front - loaded rhythm, investment in new areas, and longer terms", with the government bond scale expected to reach a record high [76]. 5. Institutional Behavior: Stable but Changing Allocation, Contracting and Differentiating Trading - Allocation Disk: Commercial banks' bond allocation will increase steadily, with a shift towards the medium - and short - term. Insurance institutions' demand for bond allocation may weaken, and there will be a re - balance between stocks and bonds [84][85]. - Trading Disk: The trading disk's allocation of interest - rate bonds will contract overall, with internal differentiation and more cautious strategies [86]. 6. Equity Disturbance: From "Strong Stocks, Weak Bonds" to "Stock - Bond Re - balance" - 2025: The stock - bond relationship was mainly "strong stocks, weak bonds", with the strength of the equity market suppressing the bond market [95]. - 2026: The equity market is likely to continue to recover, and the stock - bond relationship will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state, with the squeezing effect on the bond market weakening [99]. 7. Capital Price: Continued Loose Capital, Marginally Increased Volatility - 2025: Capital prices showed a downward trend with converging volatility, with the central bank guiding the centralization of capital prices and suppressing short - term fluctuations [102]. - 2026: Capital prices are expected to show a double - feature of "systematically downward centralization and magnified periodic volatility", with the central bank relying on multiple tools to maintain stability [103]. 8. Outlook for Major Asset Trends - Treasury Bonds: Yields may show a "quasi - inverted V" pattern, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond yield [109][111]. - A - shares: The equity market is likely to show a pattern of "shock - strengthening and structural differentiation", focusing on new - quality productivity [112]. - US Stocks: US stocks will continue to rise with technology leading, but the upward slope may slow down, and there is a risk of valuation bubbles [113]. - US Bonds: US bond yields will show a downward - centralization and steepening curve, but supply pressure and inflation resilience will limit the downward space [114]. - Gold: Gold prices will likely remain high, fluctuating upwards, but the upward momentum may slow down [115].