12月PMI数据点评：景气重返扩张区间

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - December Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025[2] - Production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, while new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved production and demand[12] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, supporting the manufacturing recovery, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 48.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges[18] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - December Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, showing improvement from November[3] - Construction PMI recorded at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, driven by favorable weather and accelerated project progress[25] - Service sector Business Activity Index increased to 49.7%, still in contraction, with significant variation across industries, indicating a slow recovery[25] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Overall PMI data for December reflects a phase of economic recovery, confirming the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[5] - Anticipated economic expansion supported by upcoming consumption peaks and infrastructure projects, alongside a special bond issuance plan of 62.5 billion yuan to stimulate consumption[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slow global economic recovery, and insufficient domestic demand[6]