USDA民间出口商报告向中国出口13.6万吨大豆 Anec巴西12月大豆出口量料为302万吨 20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as important fundamental information, macro news, fund flow, and arbitrage tracking [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [1] - The latest prices and percentage changes are also presented for several currency pairs including the US dollar index, Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringgit, and others [1] Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are reported for different regions in China [2] - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also provided [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions may experience scattered showers, with pod - filling and grain - swelling accelerating in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern part are a concern for soybean growth [4] - In Argentina, the northern part of the main soybean - producing area may have local showers, while the central and southern parts are mostly dry, which may put pressure on soybean growth [4] International Supply and Demand - USDA reported that private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [6] - Anec estimated Brazil's December soybean exports at 302 tons and December soybean meal exports at 187 tons, down from previous forecasts [6] - The deadline for soybean planting in Brazil's Goiás state is January 2, 2026, and farmers must complete crop registration within 15 days after planting [7] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 67.6% to 9.62 tons in the week ending December 21, but decreased by 42.2% year - to - date compared to the previous year [7] - Canada's grain deliveries increased by 14.2% in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with wheat and rapeseed deliveries rising significantly [8] Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 35,200 tons, a 153% increase from the previous trading day [10] - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean meal in major Chinese oil mills was 23.73 tons, an increase of 15.14 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 53.46%, up 2.60% [10] - As of December 30, the soybean oil port inventory in China was 103.9 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from December 23 [10] - On December 30, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased, while the prices of some agricultural products such as pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens increased [11] Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1% [14] - The year - on - year growth rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales in the week ending December 27 was 7.6% [15] - The US Chicago PMI in December was 43.5, higher than the expected 39.8 [15] - The year - on - year growth rate of the US S&P/CS20 major cities' unadjusted housing price index in October was 1.3% [15] - The month - on - month growth rate of the US FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4% [15] - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December but had in - depth discussions on the risks faced by the US economy. There are differences among Fed officials [15] - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 26 was 174.7 tons, contrary to the expected decrease [16] Domestic News - On December 30, the US dollar/Chinese Yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.0348, up 17 points (depreciation of the Chinese Yuan) [18] - On December 30, the central bank of China conducted 312.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [18] Fund Flow - On December 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 4.02 billion yuan. The net capital outflow from commodity futures was 15.1 billion yuan, while the net capital inflow from stock index futures was 11.725 billion yuan, and the net capital outflow from treasury bond futures was 0.502 billion yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the given content