Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a trending pattern, while alumina is on a long - term downward path. The financial attribute of aluminum will continue to strongly drive the price in 2026, and the global supply - demand shortage of aluminum will support the price. Alumina will maintain a cost - based pricing logic due to an oversupply situation [6][86]. - The consumption of aluminum will grow at a low rate but still have bright spots, such as in energy transformation, lightweight applications, and the export of aluminum - processed products. However, traditional industries like real estate and home appliances may still perform weakly [34][54]. - The supply of recycled cast aluminum alloy will be affected by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and its price will generally follow the trend of the aluminum price [89]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - Electrolytic Aluminum: Overseas tariffs, monetary policies, and the "de - dollarization" trend have affected the aluminum price. The supply - demand contradiction and low inventory have supported the price, and the cost has decreased while the profit has increased [5]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy futures were successfully launched this year. The price of aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price, but the spot price of casting aluminum alloy has difficulty following the increase in the aluminum price [5]. - Alumina: The supply - demand situation at home and abroad has turned to oversupply, and the price has declined. The industry is shifting profits to the ore end, and there are basis trading opportunities [5]. 2. Market Outlook - Electrolytic Aluminum: The financial attribute will continue to strongly drive the aluminum price. The supply - demand shortage and low inventory will give the price greater elasticity [6]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply - demand pattern will remain slightly oversupplied, and the price will generally follow the metal sector and the aluminum price. There are risks in basis and cross - variety spreads [6]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation will continue, and the price will maintain a downward - selling strategy. There are policy risks, and basis trading opportunities still exist [6]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Be bullish on the aluminum price on dips; the absolute price of casting aluminum alloy will follow the aluminum price, and pay attention to basis and variety spread opportunities before the expiration of warehouse receipts; maintain a downward - selling strategy for alumina, and pay attention to price elasticity risks driven by policy expectations [7]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the expansion of the monthly spread of aluminum at low inventory levels, the convergence of the basis at the end of the off - season, and the repeated arbitrage opportunities in the internal - external price difference; for aluminum alloy, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities in the range of a discount of 100 - 1400 yuan to the aluminum price and the spot - futures arbitrage opportunities; there are basis trading opportunities for alumina when the warehouse receipts are low and before expiration [7]. Part Two: Supply Rigidity and Global Shortage, Aluminum Price in a Trending Pattern 1. 2025 Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price showed a volatile upward pattern in 2025, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract price ranging from a minimum of 19,000 yuan to a maximum of 22,980 yuan, an annual increase of 13.8% [11]. - The price increase in the first and fourth quarters was mainly driven by LME aluminum, while in the second and third quarters, the price rebounded steadily after a decline [12][13]. 2. 2026 - 2030 Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Outlook - Domestic: The supply - side constraints on domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity still exist. The capacity will reach the theoretical ceiling in 2026, and the supply elasticity will decrease significantly. The production in 2026 and 2027 will have limited growth [20][21][22]. - Overseas: The overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase by 820,000 tons in 2026 and 1.65 million tons in 2027. The new - investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Indonesia [24][25]. - Imports: China will still rely on imported aluminum ingots in 2026, and the net import volume is expected to increase to 2.5 million tons [33]. 3. Aluminum Consumption with Low Growth but Bright Spots - Export of Aluminum - processed Products: The export volume of aluminum - processed products in 2025 is expected to be about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. It is expected to turn positive in 2026, with an increase of about 400,000 tons [34]. - Domestic Aluminum Demand: The proportion of domestic aluminum demand in the total apparent demand increased in 2025. The growth of domestic demand was mainly in the first half of the year, and the demand in the energy transformation and lightweight application fields will be a stable growth source [41][54]. - Difference between Apparent Demand and Actual Output: The apparent demand of aluminum is significantly higher than the actual output of aluminum - processed materials, mainly due to the inventory in the intermediate links of the industry [45]. - Traditional Industries: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry will still be weak, and the home appliance industry is expected to have a mild growth in air - conditioner production. The "aluminum - for - copper" substitution is ongoing [59][65]. 4. Certainties and Uncertainties of Aluminum - The global aluminum supply - demand gap may continue in the next five years, which will increase the price elasticity of aluminum. Tariffs and trade barriers mainly affect the price difference between regions, and the EU's CBAM policy may increase the trading cost [69][70]. - The aluminum market has a weak tolerance for supply - side uncertainties. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants face risks such as accidents, carbon tariffs, and energy supply, and the climate phenomenon may also affect production and demand [71]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Expectations - Balance Sheet: The global economic growth is expected to be slow from 2025 to 2030. The domestic aluminum demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 2.54%. The global aluminum supply - demand gap is expected to be 570,000 tons in 2026 and 330,000 tons in 2027 [72]. - Inventory: Overseas, the LME aluminum spot basis has been in a premium state, and the new regulatory rules may make the price increase more stable. Domestically, the overall inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread and basis during peak seasons [79][84]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors Affecting Aluminum Price The price of aluminum is affected by both financial and commodity attributes. In 2026, the resonance of these two attributes may push the aluminum price to break through previous highs, and the smelting profit is expected to be considerable [86]. Part Three: Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy Expected to Follow the Aluminum Price 1. Supply - Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloy - Supply: In 2025, the total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy reached 18.67 million tons, with a low production rate due to raw material shortages, price inversion, and policy disturbances. In 2026, about 1 million tons of new capacity are expected to be put into operation, but the supply growth is still restricted [89]. - Demand: The demand for recycled aluminum alloy is mainly from the transportation industry, especially in the automotive sector. The demand growth rate is expected to slow down in 2026 [94][95]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The industry is expected to face a shortage in 2025 and 2026. The futures market may drive demand, but the expiration of warehouse receipts may widen the basis [102]. 2. Scrap Aluminum Raw Materials - The global scrap aluminum trade has been growing steadily. China's scrap aluminum is in short supply and relies on imports. The application of scrap aluminum in non - alloy products is increasing, which will keep the scrap aluminum in short supply and narrow the refined - scrap price difference [105][108]. 3. Price and Spread of Recycled Aluminum Alloy The price of recycled aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price. In 2026, it is expected to follow the aluminum price, but the seasonal performance of the spread may be weaker than in previous years [113][114]. Part Four: Alumina in an Oversupply Situation with a Long - term Downward Path 1. 2025 Alumina Market Review The alumina price showed a downward trend in 2025, mainly due to the improvement of the supply - demand situation. The price rebounded in May and July but then continued to decline. The domestic production capacity and output increased significantly [120][121][124]. 2. Alumina Supply Outlook - Domestic: The domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase in 2026, with a theoretical maximum output of 103.68 - 104.68 million tons. After considering dynamic balance, the output is expected to be about 99.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [127][128]. - Overseas: The overseas alumina production is expected to increase by about 7% to 61.73 million tons in 2026 [133]. 3. Alumina Supply - Demand Balance Expectation The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is not significant, and there will be an oversupply of about 4 million tons at home and abroad in 2026. The alumina price will mainly follow the cost - based pricing logic, but the price may rebound if the supply - demand surplus narrows [141]. 4. Bauxite with Significant Increment and Expected Price Decline In 2025, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly, and the import volume increased significantly. The supply of bauxite is expected to be in surplus in 2026, and the price is expected to continue to decline, which will drive the alumina price down [145][153][154].
铝价存趋势格局，氧化铝寻底路漫漫
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-31 08:17