国金期货玻璃周报-20251231

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The glass futures market is likely to continue oscillating in a relatively low - level range due to insufficient long - and short - term drivers. The core contradiction in the market is the game between "rising cold - repair expectations" and "the reality of high inventory." In the short term, prices may continue to oscillate within a range, and in the medium term, they are still restricted by weak terminal demand and slow inventory depletion [2][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Glass futures prices fell near the previous low. With the expectation of production cuts, short - position main players actively reduced their positions last week. From December 24th (Wednesday) to Friday, prices rebounded slightly, rising from a minimum of 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday to 1057 yuan/ton at Friday's close [2]. 2. Weekly Position Changes - As of December 26th (last Friday), the long - position of the 2605 contract was 609,514 lots, an increase of 6,210 lots compared to the previous week; the short - position was 792,345 lots, an increase of 466 lots compared to the previous week [5]. 3. Spot Market - In the traditional off - season, terminal demand is weak, and recent enterprise shipments are sluggish. As of December 25th, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes. South China and East China had better inventory reduction, while North China and Central China had a slight inventory increase. A production line in Dongguan, Guangdong with a daily output of 900 tons was shut down for cold repair on December 24th. The glass supply has decreased, and the previous centralized cold - repair of production lines has improved the supply - demand situation to some extent, but the weak demand remains the current keynote [6]. 4. Production Profit Changes - From December 19th to December 25th, the weekly average profit of natural - gas glass was - 186.4 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 21.88 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 14.26 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 7.21 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 7.14 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7]. 5. Market Outlook - From December 22nd to December 26th, the main contract of glass futures rebounded moderately in oscillation, but the spot market was under continuous pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices intensified. The short - term price may continue to oscillate within a range, and the medium - term is still restricted by weak terminal demand and slow inventory depletion [8].