产能过剩未解，成本博弈深化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of manganese silicon/silicon iron is "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy industry will continue to face over - capacity in 2026, with planned new capacity additions. The industry's supply elasticity is high, and profit recovery will stimulate supply. Manganese ore cost provides some support for manganese silicon, and the demand for magnesium metal offers marginal support for silicon iron. With expected electricity price cuts in 2026, overall cost support will weaken, and ferroalloy prices are likely to remain weak [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Ferroalloy Market Review - Manganese Silicon: The market showed a rise - then - fall pattern in 2025. In Q1, manganese ore price increases drove up costs and prices, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand. In Q2, there was a rebound and then a fall. In Q3, prices strengthened with cost support, and in Q4, the market entered a weak - oscillating phase [14] - Silicon Iron: The market trended downwards in 2025. In Q1, weak demand and supply contraction led to a lack of price support. In Q2, cost reduction and weak demand pushed prices down. In Q3, cost increases drove up prices, and in Q4, the market declined again due to cost weakening and supply pressure [17] 2. Manganese Silicon: Continuous Capacity Expansion, Weakening Cost Support 2.1 Manganese Ore Support Limited, Electricity Price Declining - Manganese Ore Supply Recovery, Limited Price Support: In 2025, manganese ore prices first rose, then fell, and finally oscillated. The increase in Q1 was due to reduced Gabonese ore arrivals and concentrated cargo rights. After Q2, supply increased, and prices stabilized. China's manganese ore imports increased by 11% in 2025. In 2026, the supply increase will mainly come from South32's recovery, with an expected net import increase of 300,000 - 400,000 tons [25][26][35] - Port Manganese Ore Inventory Rising from Low Levels: In 2025, port inventory decreased in H1 and increased in H2. In 2026, inventory accumulation is expected to be limited. High ferromanganese slag production also affected inventory [41] - Other Costs Weakening: In 2026, coking coal prices are expected to have a bottom - up but limited - upside trend. Electricity prices are likely to decline due to the increase in new energy capacity, with a potential reduction of 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China [56] 2.2 New Capacity Coming into Operation - The manganese silicon industry is over - capacity, but low - electricity - price regions like Inner Mongolia have cost advantages, leading to continuous capacity expansion. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 2.8632 million tons, and supply will increase [58] 2.3 Manganese Silicon Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - Supply: Supply will increase in 2026 due to new capacity in low - cost regions [72] - Cost: The cost - reduction pressure mainly comes from electricity prices, with a possible 2 - 3 cent per kWh reduction in Northwest China [72] - Demand: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be flat, and manganese silicon demand will be under pressure due to weak building material demand [72] - Overall: The 2026 manganese silicon market will have "increasing supply and stable demand", with a price range of 5,200 - 6,300 yuan/ton [73] 3. Silicon Iron: Increasing Supply, Weak Demand Support 3.1 Over - Capacity, Reduced Supply in High - Cost Regions - In 2025, silicon iron production decreased, with a "high - then - low" pattern. High - cost regions like Qinghai and Gansu reduced production. In 2026, new capacity of about 1.038 million tons is expected, mainly in cost - advantage regions [77][78] 3.2 Cost Reduction - In 2026, electricity prices are expected to decline by 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China. Lanthanum coke prices may also fall, leading to a lower cost center for silicon iron [83] 3.3 Steel Demand Stable, Export Declining, Magnesium Metal Supporting - Export: In 2025, silicon iron exports were high. In 2026, exports may decline due to high tariffs and potential competition from Ukraine [92] - Magnesium Metal: In 2026, the demand for magnesium alloy is expected to increase, providing some support for silicon iron, but the proportion is small [92] - Steel: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be stable, having a neutral impact on silicon iron demand [93] 3.4 Silicon Iron Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - Supply: New capacity will be concentrated in cost - advantage regions, with an expected increase in 2026 [96] - Cost: Electricity and coal prices are expected to decline, weakening cost support [96] - Demand: Exports may decline, and magnesium metal demand will provide limited support. Steel demand will be stable [96] - Overall: In 2026, the silicon iron market may have increasing supply and demand, with a price range of 5,000 - 6,000 yuan/ton [97]