Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 08:55Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Performance: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - Market Outlook: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - Spot Market - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - Pork and Sow Prices: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Sow Inventory: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - Live Pig Inventory: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - Industry Profit - Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - Domestic Import - Pork Imports: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - Substitutes - Prices: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - Feed - Raw Material Prices: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - Feed Index and Price: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - Feed Output: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - CPI: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - Downstream - Slaughter and Cold Storage: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - Live Pig - Related Stocks: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].