Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 08:52Report Information - Report Title: Caustic Soda Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290, and the spot price declined slightly. The SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.3% to 86.0%. The alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Price: The main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290 this week, and the spot price declined slightly. As of December 31, 2025, the SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2197 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -45 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some plants in East and North China restarted last week, driving the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase by 1.3% to 86.0%. On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. In terms of inventory, affected by the end-of-month inventory clearance in North China and the rigid demand from downstream, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons last week. In terms of profit, due to the weakening of liquid chlorine prices, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - Outlook: In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: This week, SH2603 fluctuated and rose, and the position of the 03 contract decreased [9]. - Spot Market: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 703, with a converted price of 2197. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Henan was 704 yuan, with a converted price of 2200. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia was 656 yuan, with a converted price of 2050. The ex-factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton. The spot was at a discount to the main futures, and the number of registered warrants remained stable this week [14][23][28][33]. 3. Industry Situation - Upstream: The prices of raw salt in Northwest and Shandong were basically stable. The price of 5500K thermal coal in Qinhuangdao dropped to 670 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Supply: In November, the caustic soda output was 356.95 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%. Last week, the operating rate rose to 86% [47]. - Demand: In November, the alumina output was 800.83 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.14%. Last week, the viscose staple fiber开工率 was 87.03%. The alumina price was weak, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable [53][57][60]. - Import and Export: In November, the caustic soda import was 0.09 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda import from January to November was 0.82 tons. In November, the caustic soda export was 27.44 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda export from January to November was 376.67 tons [66][72]. - Inventory: Last week, the enterprise sample inventory was 44.22 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.83% [77]. - Profit: Last week, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali decreased month-on-month [80]. 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 25.81%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 30.85% [83].