资产再平衡中的债市

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak and stable state of the domestic fundamentals continues, with the GDP growth rate declining quarter - by - quarter this year and inflation recovery being structural. The market's expectations for next year's economic growth and inflation readings have improved significantly. However, the central bank's policy rate cut threshold is high, and the marginal utility of "broad money" is reduced. The influence of institutional behavior has increased. Before the "Two Sessions" in March and Trump's visit to China in April next year, the bond market may be under pressure, and the 10Y Treasury yield may rise to the 1.9 - 2.0% range. After the first quarter, if the fundamentals fall short of expectations, the yield will likely return to the downward channel [2][3][135]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - From the beginning of the year to mid - March: The central bank's liquidity management was in a tight balance, and the market's loose expectations were revised. The 10Y Treasury yield first fell and then rose, reaching around 1.9% by mid - March [7]. - From late March to the end of June: The market's capital became looser, and Sino - US trade frictions recurred. The 10Y yield fluctuated downward to around 1.8% [7]. - From early July to late September: The stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, and policy disturbances increased. The bond market oscillated and adjusted, and the Treasury yield continued to rise [7]. - From early October to the end of the year: Expectations dominated the macro - narrative, and concerns about the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds intensified. The bond market sentiment was cautious, and the curve slope steepened [8]. 2. External Demand Supports Production, while Domestic Demand Needs to be Boosted - In terms of PMI, the domestic economic fundamentals continued to recover in 2025, but the upward slope was still gentle. Production and external demand were resilient, while domestic demand was weak. By November, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was +6.0%, and the service production index increased by 5.6%. Exports from January to November increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion. However, domestic fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods had relatively low absolute growth rates, and the real - estate industry dragged down investment [22][27][31]. 3. Price Indicators are Repairing at a Low Level, and Inflation Expectations have Improved - This year's inflation readings repaired at a low level. By November, CPI was +0.7% year - on - year, and core CPI was +1.2%. PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, with a positive monthly - on - monthly growth in November. The market's inflation expectations have changed significantly. "Anti - involution" provided a policy bottom for some industrial product prices, and potential imported inflation may accelerate the repair of domestic PPI [51][54][61]. 4. Social Financing Depends on the Government Sector, and the Reasons for M1 Repair are Diverse - Government bond financing supported the overall social financing this year. The cumulative net financing scale of national and local bonds was about 13.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 2.59 trillion yuan. The credit expansion momentum of the private sector was still weak, with a differentiation between the household and enterprise sectors. M1 growth accelerated, mainly driven by the enterprise sector. Fiscal policy is expected to support social financing next year, and the probability of monetary policy intensification due to weak financial data is low [70][75][87]. 5. The Central Bank's Attitude of Caring for Liquidity Remains Unchanged, but the Threshold for Policy Rate Cuts is High - The central bank's short - term fund injection was effective, and the influence of government bond issuance on the capital market was controllable. However, the central bank's policy rate cut threshold was high due to internal net interest margin pressure and the low marginal utility of "broad money." The central bank further clarified the five - group interest rate comparison relationships, which will have an impact on the bond market [91][107][111]. 6. The "Asset Shortage" in the Bond Market has Eased, and Concerns about the Supply and Demand of Long - Term Bonds have Increased - Policy - driven stock - bond asset allocation rebalancing and the rise of other asset prices have alleviated the "asset shortage" in the bond market. Some regulatory policy adjustments have inhibited institutional bond trading. The market's concerns about the potential imbalance between the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds are expected to continue, but banks and insurance institutions may play a supporting role, and the central bank may also take action [113][122][125]. 7. Speculation on Next Year's Macroeconomic Policies - The central economic work conference in December emphasized the continuation of "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," but the policy intensity has converged. It is expected that there may be one interest rate cut next year, with a 10bp reduction in the policy rate, and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts, each of 0.25 percentage points. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at 4.0%, and the expenditure will be more focused on people's livelihoods [131][132][133]. 8. Viewpoint Summary and Market Outlook - Considering the optimistic expectations and concerns about the supply and demand of ultra - long bonds before March and April next year, the bond market may be under pressure. After the first quarter, if the fundamentals are disappointing, the yield may decline. In terms of operations, it is recommended to be cautious in the first quarter and look for long - buying opportunities later. Curve trading has a logical basis, and arbitrage depends on sentiment or events [135][136][137].