苯乙烯市场周报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870. As of December 31, 2025, the main EB2602 contract of styrene closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from last week's closing price. In the short - term, the supply - demand of styrene will gradually shift from tight balance to wide balance in January, with limited cost - side support, and the upward price trend is expected to weaken. The short - term operating range of EB2602 is expected to be around 6,680 - 6,950 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: The main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870, and the EB2602 contract closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant restarted, Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant shut down due to a fault. Styrene output increased by 2.25% to 354,600 tons, and capacity utilization rose by 1.57% to 70.70%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mostly increased, with EPS up 0.75% to 52.56%, PS up 4.1% to 58.6%, ABS down 0.7% to 69.4%, UPR up 2% to 38%, and styrene - butadiene rubber up 0.15% to 79.38%. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 0.47% to 171,800 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 0.36% to 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 70% to 18,700 tons. In terms of cost - profit, the non - integrated cost of styrene rose to 6,766.50 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit slightly recovered to - 177 yuan/ton. The integrated profit is around 635.04 yuan/ton, which is profitable [7]. - Outlook: There are no major styrene plant shutdown or restart news in the near future. Domestic output and capacity utilization are expected to change little. EPS will maintain low operation due to the off - season and high inventory. The load of PS and ABS plants has no significant adjustment. Currently, downstream profits are generally low, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and there is still supply pressure in the real - end of international crude oil. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts: The main EB futures contract fluctuated strongly, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased month - on - month [8]. - Net Position and Monthly Spread: The position of the 02 contract decreased month - on - month, and the 02 - 03 spread fluctuated slightly [13]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price fluctuated and rose, the main basis strengthened, and the spot was slightly at a premium [17]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - Ethylene and Pure Benzene Prices: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated slightly [23]. - Ethylene Supply: In November, ethylene output decreased month - on - month, and ethylene imports remained basically stable month - on - month [27]. 3.3.2. Supply - Capacity and Output: In December, a new 200,000 - ton plant in Dongming was put into operation. In November, styrene production was 1.4562 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [32]. - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the styrene operating rate increased month - on - month [36]. 3.3.3. Demand - Downstream Price and Operating Rate: The price decline of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS slowed down, and the downstream operating rates mostly increased. EPS, PS, and UPR operating rates increased, while ABS operating rate decreased, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased. EPS continued to accumulate inventory, while PS and ABS had some inventory reduction. Downstream profits were weak [39][43][48][53][56]. 3.3.4. Import and Export - In November, styrene imports were 18,800 tons, and exports were 23,700 tons [61]. 3.3.5. Inventory - Port inventory was 157,500 tons, and factory inventory was 171,800 tons. The East China port inventory was 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory was 18,700 tons [66][70]. 3.3.6. Production Cost and Profit - Non - integrated cost increased slightly, and profit slightly recovered. The integrated process was highly profitable. This week, the import profit continued to be in a loss, and the import window was closed [74][80][83]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was reported at 18.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 22.05% [88].