Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From December 22 - 26, the oils and fats sector fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The palm oil main 2605 contract rose 1.8%, the soybean oil main contract fell 0.8%, and the palm oil main contract rose 2%. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia but weak domestic demand and inventory build - up. Soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with limited drivers. Rapeseed oil prices are supported by tight supply and strong market hoarding sentiment, and the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds should be monitored [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Malaysian palm oil fundamentals improved with a decline in production and an increase in exports in early December, but there is still inventory build - up pressure. SPPOMA showed a 7.15% month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20. AmSpec, SGS, and ITS had different data on palm oil exports during the same period. Malaysia lowered its January crude palm oil reference price and export tariff. Indonesia may impose up to $8.5 billion in fines on palm oil enterprises, which may affect production [4]. - The increase in B50 biodiesel volume is small. Indonesia has started B50 road tests, and the mandatory use policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. The 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025, and the market doubts Indonesia's ability to achieve the B50 target [5]. - There is an expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans. AgRural forecast Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons, and as of December 20, the sowing rate was 97.6% [5]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: There were no new purchases or cancellations of vessels from December 20 - 26, and domestic demand is weak with low procurement volume [11]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 206.44 tons, the operating rate was 56.79% (down 1.82% month - on - month), and the soybean oil output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month). Domestic soybean supply is relatively abundant [11]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Australian rapeseeds have not been crushed, and supply is tight [11]. Demand - Palm oil: As of December 26, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 1300 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons month - on - month, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs [8]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the weekly domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 12.15 tons, an increase of 4.92 tons month - on - month [8]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons month - on - month, and it remained at a low level year - on - year [8]. Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 73.41 tons, an increase of 3.41 tons month - on - month, a 4.87% increase [9]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 108.9 tons, a decrease of 3.45 tons month - on - month, a 3.07% decrease, but inventory pressure still exists [9]. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 28.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons month - on - month, a 5.94% decrease, and inventory continued to decline [9]. Cost and Profit - As of December 26, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1065/ton, and the import cost was 8928 yuan/ton, an increase of 337 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: It rebounded due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia, but domestic inventory continued to build up and demand was weak, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Soybean oil: There is uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained high, and inventory pressure still exists, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed supply is sufficient, but domestic rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, oil mills are shut down, supply is tight, and market hoarding sentiment is strong, so it is necessary to monitor the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds [13]. 4. Spot Prices - As of December 26, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8360 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data - Production in November 2025 was 193.55 tons, a 5.30% month - on - month decrease, and the decrease in the Malay Peninsula was the most obvious [17]. - Inventory in November was 283.54 tons, a 13.04% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level year - on - year [18]. - Exports in November were 121.2 tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease, mainly due to the expected decrease in Indonesia's December export tariff [19]. - Domestic consumption in Malaysia in November was 41.8 tons, a 71.76% month - on - month increase [20]. 6. Indian Palm Oil Data - In November, India imported 63.23 tons of palm oil, an increase of 3 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [23]. 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data - As of December 26, the commercial inventory was 73.41 tons, a 4.87% increase. In November, the import volume was 33 tons, an increase of 11 tons month - on - month [25]. - In November, the consumption was 33.92 tons, an increase of 11.1 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [27]. - As of December 26, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, the output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month), and it was still at a high level year - on - year. The inventory continued to decline but was still at a high level, and supply pressure still exists [33][34]. 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 26, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the operating rate of pressing plants was 0%, the rapeseed pressing volume was 0 tons, and the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The inventory was 28.5 tons (down 1.8 tons month - on - month), and inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the pressing of Australian rapeseeds [36].
油脂周度行情观察-20251231
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-31 09:05