瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20251231

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was relatively dull as it was the last trading week of 2025, and the market's reaction to economic data was not obvious due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. However, the three major domestic PMI indices in December returned to the expansion range, indicating signs of economic recovery [6]. - In November, the external demand of the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The National Fiscal Conference stated that fiscal policy will continue to exert force, and the scale of fiscal expenditure may further increase next year, leading to an increase in the supply pressure of interest rate bonds. Additionally, the current main allocation force for long-term bonds is facing challenges in its ability to absorb long-duration assets, intensifying the adjustment pressure in the long-end market. Under the fragile sentiment in the bond market, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Recently, the weakening of the US dollar index has supported commodities. The National Fiscal Work Conference held at the end of the week regarding next year's fiscal work, especially the arrangements for trade-ins, also supported commodity trends from the demand side. The overall macro atmosphere in the market is positive, and the commodity index is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend [6]. - The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is highly divided. Most officials support further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. The Fed may restart balance sheet expansion, boosting market liquidity expectations. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. The Bank of Japan tends to be hawkish, and the euro is expected to strengthen due to the widening interest rate differential, while the yen continues to fluctuate under the influence of carry trades and fiscal concerns [10]. - In December, the official manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, indicating that the manufacturing industry has expanded again. The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to the expansion range. The improvement in the construction industry's prosperity, driven by factors such as relatively high temperatures in some southern provinces and enterprises seizing the construction progress before the holidays, is expected to continue [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - Stock Market: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures fell by 0.78%. A-share major indices generally declined, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was dull, but the economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6]. - Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.09%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.39%. The economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted, and the supply pressure of interest rate bonds is increasing. The long-end market faces adjustment pressure, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. The recommendation is to conduct range trading [6]. - Commodity Market: The Wind Commodity Index fell by 6.87%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell by 1.77%. The weakening of the US dollar and fiscal policies support commodity trends. The recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [6]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.25%. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, the euro is expected to strengthen, and the yen continues to fluctuate. The recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic News: In 2026, the "national subsidy" policy for equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins was launched, with the first batch of 6.25 billion yuan in funds allocated. The VAT rate for selling housing purchased for less than two years was lowered from 5% to 3%. The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecological system will be launched on January 1, 2026, and digital RMB will start to accrue interest. The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented, with 935 commodities subject to lower import provisional tax rates [14]. - International News: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation declines. The US President met with the Ukrainian President, but no major announcements were made. The United Nations Transferable Goods Documents Convention was passed, filling a legal gap in land trade. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes were hawkish, suggesting future rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was also 50.1, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing industry [17]. - US: The month-on-month rate of the existing home sales contract signing index in November was 3.3%, higher than expected. The month-on-month rate of the FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4%, and the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted housing price index was 1.3% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic data will be released next week, including the US December ISM manufacturing PMI, France and Germany's December CPI month - on - month preliminary values, Germany's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone's December CPI annual rate preliminary value, the US December ADP employment number, etc. [76]