Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 08:57Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]