Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 09:03Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LLDPE主力 futures fluctuated in the range of 6430 - 6510. As of the close on December 31, 2025, the L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week's closing price. In January, new domestic PE production capacity will continue to be released, and low - cost overseas resources will keep flowing in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. With the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up of packaging film demand, the LLDPE price still faces pressure in the future. In the short term, L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of around 6220 - 6600 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Highlights - Price: The L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week [6]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, a new 500,000 - ton full - density plant of Guangdong BASF was put into operation, and some plants had short - term shutdowns. PE production decreased by 1.09% to 672,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.22% to 82.64% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate down 1.3% and the packaging film operating rate down 0.7% [6]. - Inventory: This week, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 20.48% to 346,700 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.77% to 475,100 tons [6]. - Cost - profit: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.11% to 7014 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 379.71 yuan/ton to - 667 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.94% to 6448 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 165.57 yuan/ton to - 206.71 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: In January, new domestic PE production capacity will be released, and low - cost overseas resources will flow in. Enterprises may increase shutdowns. Agricultural film demand is in the off - season, and packaging film demand is limited. International oil prices are expected to be weak. After the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, LLDPE prices face pressure, and L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6220 - 6600 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price and Volume: This week, L2605 fluctuated in a range, and the trading volume of the main contract dropped significantly [7]. - Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 monthly spread fluctuated strongly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated weakly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated slightly, and the L - PP spread fluctuated slightly [18][24]. Spot Market - Price: The domestic LLDPE price was in the range of 6300 - 6530, and the CFR China quotation was 773 US dollars/ton [29]. - Basis: The main contract basis decreased, and the spot was slightly at a discount [33]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Ethylene Price: This week, the RMB price of ethylene remained basically stable [37]. - Ethylene Production and Import: In November, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and ethylene import remained basically stable month - on - month but increased year - on - year [40]. Supply - Production: In November, the polyethylene production was 2.8909 million tons, an increase month - on - month [44]. - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month [50]. Cost - profit - Production Cost: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased [55]. - Profit: Last week, the profit of oil - based LLDPE and coal - based LLDPE both decreased. This week, the LLDPE import profit increased, but the import window remained closed [61][66]. Inventory - This week, the PE inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not large [71]. Demand - Downstream Price: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [75]. - Downstream Operating Rate: Last week, the average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.6%. The operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, and pipes decreased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 0.00% year - on - year, and the cumulative export amount decreased by 1.20% year - on - year [78][82][87]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 16.00%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.88% [91].