Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-31 09:15Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month-on-month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month-on-month. The domestic pure benzene output increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high-level upward trend. In terms of profit, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - In January, two sets of equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, and equipment such as Funeng Jiahua, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical will be restarted one after another. A new device of Guangdong BASF is planned to be put into production, and the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale downstream styrene equipment is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; a small amount of equipment for caprolactam will resume, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little; some maintenance equipment for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid is planned to be restarted. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and the supply pressure of international crude oil in the real - world remains. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Price: This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side: last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month - on - month, with domestic pure benzene output rising slightly. Demand - side: the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month - on - month. Inventory: the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high - level upward trend. Profit: the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - Outlook: In January, domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of downstream products is expected to remain stable or change little. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range, and the spot price in East China rose slightly, reaching 5345 yuan/ton on December 31 [8]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in North China was 5170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 5300 yuan/ton [15]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in Northeast China was 5210 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 5040 yuan/ton [20]. - On December 29, the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 664 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 672 US dollars/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased month - on - month [30]. - In November, 459,600 tons of pure benzene were imported. This week, the import profit fluctuated slightly, and the import window was semi - open [36]. - This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively high [42]. - This week, the production cost of petroleum benzene decreased, and the profit recovered. Last week, the production cost of hydrobenzene decreased month - on - month, and the profit recovered [45][50]. - The operating rate of styrene increased month - on - month, and the non - integrated profit increased. The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit decreased. The operating rate of the phenol industry was 78.15%. The operating rate of the aniline industry was 62.98%. The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 63.6% [55][60][63]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 11.57%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 19.2% [76].