中采PMI点评（25.12）：12月PMI回升的四大支撑

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December increased to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2% in November, marking a return to the expansion zone after 9 months[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Key Support Factors - New momentum and consumer goods sectors contributed to the PMI rebound, with manufacturing PMI supported by a 1.7 percentage point rise in production and a 1.6 percentage point rise in new orders[2][8] - Emerging industries such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals saw PMI increases of 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, indicating improvement despite traditional sectors declining[2][11] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reflecting a reduction in the crowding-out effect of debt on investment[3][16] - Export resilience was noted, with the new export orders index improving by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, while domestic orders increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%[4][20] Group 3: Sector Performance - The overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points[3][14] - The service sector PMI improved slightly to 49.7%, with new orders and employment indices showing marginal increases[5][31] - The construction sector's new orders index rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, indicating a positive trend in demand[5][36] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that economic growth remains resilient, driven by new momentum and supportive fiscal policies, despite traditional sectors facing downward pressure[4][22] - Risks include potential changes in the external environment and the pace of growth policies not meeting expectations[5][38]