Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market exhibited a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.93% [8][13][45] - The market sentiment improved significantly towards the end of December, with the Shanghai Index achieving eleven consecutive gains, driven by easing concerns over AI bubbles and favorable policy expectations for 2026 [8][45] Economic Environment Analysis - Global economic indicators showed signs of stabilization but with a slowdown, as evidenced by the marginal decline in the US and Eurozone PMI indices [19][39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December marked the third reduction of the year, with expectations for a slower pace of future cuts in 2026 due to internal divisions within the FOMC [20][44] - Domestic economic indicators reflected weak internal growth momentum, with November's industrial value-added growth at 4.8% and fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year [21][25] Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at enhancing growth and addressing risks [29][33] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply was reiterated, with a commitment to maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% to support economic stability and transformation [31][32] Sector Allocation - Recommendations for sector allocation in January include overweighting mechanical equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals [46] - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in robotics and infrastructure projects, while the TMT sector may see growth driven by rising raw material prices and technological advancements [46][48]
2026年1月份投资策略报告：春季行情或逐步开启-20251231
Dongguan Securities·2025-12-31 09:31