每日核心期货品种分析-20251231

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market ended its trading year. Basic metals led the gains, while precious metals led the losses. Throughout the year, some commodities like Shanghai silver and gold had significant increases, while others like alumina had large drops. The oil prices decreased over 10% in 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends in the future based on their supply - demand situations and geopolitical factors [5][6] - The geopolitical situation, especially the events in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has a great impact on the commodity markets, especially on crude oil and related products [11][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - On December 31, 2025, basic metals had the highest gains, with Shanghai nickel rising 2.44%. Non - metallic building materials all increased, with glass up 1.30%. Most new energy materials rose, with polysilicon up 1.03%. Most oils and fats and oilseeds increased, with soybeans up 0.88%. All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (Europe line) up 0.52%. Precious metals had the largest declines, with platinum down 12.04%. Most energy products fell, with low - sulfur fuel oil down 2.17%. Most black series products declined, with coke down 1.25%. Most chemical products dropped, with ethylene glycol down 0.81%. Most agricultural and sideline products decreased, with corn down 0.67% [5] - Throughout 2025, Shanghai silver soared about 125%, Shanghai gold rose over 55%, and lithium carbonate rose over 54%. Alumina dropped nearly 46%, leading the decline [6] - On December 31, in the domestic futures market, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai aluminum rose over 2%, while platinum, palladium, and low - sulfur fuel oil had large drops. In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%, while other major indices mostly declined. Treasury bond futures all closed down [8] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - OPEC + 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The peak season of crude oil demand ended, with US crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made progress, but the EU extended sanctions against Russia. The US - Venezuela military confrontation intensified, causing concerns about Venezuelan exports. The global crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [11] 3.2.2 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 increased 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% last week, higher than the same period last year but at a low level in recent years. The expected production in January 2026 is 200 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The downstream开工率 mostly declined. The national shipment volume increased 11.17% to 27.18 million tons. The refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased slightly but remained near the lowest level in recent years. Due to the US sanctions on Venezuela, the supply of asphalt may decrease. The northern demand will slow down, while the winter storage demand in the north is being released. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the situation in Venezuela should be monitored [12][14] 3.2.3 PP - As of the week of December 26, the PP downstream开工率 decreased 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%, at a low level in recent years. On December 31, the PP企业开工率 was around 82%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawing was around 27.5%. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level. The cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. The supply has new capacity, and the downstream is at the end of the peak season with orders decreasing. The PP is expected to have limited upward space, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15] 3.2.4 Plastic - On December 31, the plastic开工率 rose to around 87%. As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream开工率 decreased 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level. The cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. There are new production capacities. The downstream demand is weakening, and the plastic is expected to have limited upward space. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.5 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. The downstream开工率 decreased 0.87 percentage points, and export orders decreased slightly. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. There is new production capacity. The PVC is expected to fluctuate [18]