PVC日报：震荡运行-20251231

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PVC will run in a volatile manner. The supply - side PVC开工率 continues to decline, downstream demand is weak, social inventory is high, and although the commodity market sentiment is boosted, the production decline is limited, and the current is the traditional off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream开工率 decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are poor. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with lower prices in the Indian market and limited demand. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory increased slightly and is still high. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - involution sentiment has further increased, and the commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 4,772 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,805 yuan/ton, up 0.33% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 23,231 lots to 923,530 lots [2] Basis - On December 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,805 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 305 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by devices such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, 31.92% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory is still high [6]