出口景气度持续，开工率环比回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [4][10]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a domestic cyclical recovery, with structural improvements in export conditions. As counter-cyclical policies gradually take effect, the industry's prosperity is expected to continue improving [2]. - Domestic sales of excavators are projected to rebound, supported by counter-cyclical fiscal policies and an upward industry cycle. Although exports face some trade friction risks, major machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, keeping risks manageable. Leading companies are well-positioned overseas and are entering a harvest phase [4]. - In November 2025, a total of 20,027 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.11% year-on-year, while exports reached 10,185 units, up 18.8% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, a 16.7% increase year-on-year [4]. - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, but a month-on-month increase of 4.08% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, excavator sales were 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units and exports at 10,185 units. Year-to-date sales from January to November reached 212,162 units, with domestic sales of 108,187 units and exports of 103,975 units [4]. - The proportion of domestic sales in November was approximately 49%, while exports accounted for about 51%. For the year-to-date period, domestic sales made up about 51%, and exports were around 49% [4]. Working Hours and Utilization Rates - The average working hours for major machinery in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, with excavators averaging 76.5 hours. The month-on-month improvement indicates a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [4]. - The utilization rate for major machinery products was 56.5% in November 2025, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [4]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic, all rated as "Increase Holding" [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for these companies show a positive trend, with Sany Heavy Industry projected to have an EPS of 1.02 in 2025, while XCMG is expected to reach 0.69 [5].