银河期货多晶硅年度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, domestic photovoltaic projects will face dual pressures of increased costs and declining electricity prices, with a projected over 20% year - on - year decline in newly - added photovoltaic installations to around 240GW. In the US, due to the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff barriers, newly - added photovoltaic installations are expected to decline year - on - year in 2026. In Europe, with subsidy reduction and power consumption capacity constraints, newly - added photovoltaic installations may decline to around 67GW in 2026. Emerging markets such as India and Brazil will continue to contribute to the global photovoltaic growth. The global newly - added photovoltaic installation in 2026 is expected to be 540GW, with a global component demand of about 600GW and a Chinese silicon wafer demand of around 600GW. On the supply side, under the continuous advancement of anti - involution and industry self - discipline, polysilicon production will be controlled within 1.05 million tons in 2026, with the entire industry's supply at 1.35 million tons. The price of polysilicon is likely to have a higher price center in 2026, and the price is expected to be between 45,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton [4][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary Supply - demand Outlook - In 2026, domestic photovoltaic projects face cost increases and electricity price declines, with domestic newly - added photovoltaic installations expected to decline by over 20% to around 240GW. In the US, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff barriers will lead to a decline in newly - added photovoltaic installations. In Europe, subsidy reduction and power consumption capacity constraints will cause newly - added installations to decline to around 67GW. Emerging markets will contribute to global photovoltaic growth. The global newly - added photovoltaic installation will be 540GW, with a component demand of about 600GW and a Chinese silicon wafer demand of around 600GW. Supply - side, polysilicon production will be controlled within 1.05 million tons, and the entire industry's supply will be 1.35 million tons [4]. Trading Logic - In 2026, the terminal demand for polysilicon is likely to decline. Under the guidance of "anti - involution" and industry self - discipline, polysilicon enterprises will sell according to demand, which will raise the price center in 2026. Constrained by the price law and anti - unfair competition law, the polysilicon price is difficult to fall below 45,000 yuan/ton. If the component price rises to 0.8 yuan/W in 2025, the high - end price of polysilicon in 2026 can be referred to as 75,000 yuan/ton under the extreme assumption of profit transfer to silicon materials. The polysilicon futures price will be generally strong in 2026, and a long - biased approach is recommended [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: With the price center rising, take a long - biased approach, with the price range referring to (45,000, 75,000). - Arbitrage: As anti - involution in the polysilicon industry continues to advance and production is bound to decrease, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - In December 2024, the photovoltaic industry association organized self - discipline among enterprises in the entire industry chain. Downstream crystal - pulling factories started a new round of inventory replenishment, and the spot price of polysilicon increased. In January, the polysilicon futures price was volatile and strong, once breaking through 45,000 yuan/ton. After Document No. 136, terminal installation rush accelerated, but due to high polysilicon inventory, the spot price was difficult to rise, and the futures price was volatile. After April, the installation rush subsided, and the component price faced pressure. First - tier polysilicon enterprises considered price cuts to reduce inventory, and the futures price dropped significantly. From May to June, the terminal demand declined after the installation rush subsided, and the prices in the entire industry chain fell, with the futures price breaking below the industry's cash - cost line. After July, the polysilicon industry started "anti - involution" and capacity integration. With the expectations of "sales at no less than cost" and "capacity storage", funds entered the market, pushing up the futures price. After September, the futures price rose above 50,000 yuan/ton. Due to slow progress in capacity integration, the futures valuation was difficult to give a higher premium, and the market was volatile. In December, the small number of trading warehouse receipts of polysilicon futures and the establishment of platform companies led to a volatile increase in price, breaking through 60,000 yuan/ton [9]. Demand - Domestic Terminal Demand: In 2026, the Chinese photovoltaic market will be squeezed by electricity price decline and cost increase. In 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installation was expected to reach 300GW, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In 2026, the newly - added centralized photovoltaic installation may decline by more than 60GW year - on - year, and in the best - case scenario, the newly - added distributed photovoltaic installation will not increase year - on - year. Overall, the newly - added photovoltaic installation in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 230 - 240GW, a decline of over 20% year - on - year [13][14]. - Overseas Terminal Demand: In 2026, the US photovoltaic market will be affected by policy changes, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation is expected to decline to around 35GW. In Europe, due to economic pressure and power consumption capacity constraints, the newly - added photovoltaic installation is expected to decline by 5% year - on - year to 65 - 67GW. Emerging markets represented by India will contribute to the global newly - added photovoltaic installation demand [20][21]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Industries: In 2026, the export volume of photovoltaic components may remain unchanged year - on - year, while the export volume of photovoltaic batteries will increase year - on - year. The production schedules of domestic silicon wafers, batteries, and components in 2026 will be adjusted downward year - on - year. The demand for polysilicon in 2026 is expected to decline to around 1.08 - 1.1 million tons [25][26]. Supply - The "Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform" has been officially established, but in 2026, the scale of acquired capacity is about 400,000 tons, which has limited impact on actual supply. There is a market rumor that polysilicon enterprises reached a self - discipline initiative at the Xi'an Photovoltaic Annual Conference, aiming to control the total supply within 1 million tons in 2026. Even if the initiative is not effectively implemented, the core goal of polysilicon enterprises is to reduce inventory and maintain cash flow. It is expected that after February 2026, polysilicon enterprises will promote production - reduction plans, and the production in February will be reduced to below 90,000 tons [37][38]. Inventory - Currently, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises is close to 300,000 tons, the non - standard inventory of middle - stream futures and spot traders is 15,000 - 20,000 tons, and the new and old warehouse receipts are about 27,000 tons. The downstream inventory is about 150,000 tons. In 2026, under the background of demand - based sales, the total inventory of the polysilicon industry is expected to decline slightly [41]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Fundamental Outlook - Similar to the supply - demand outlook in the preface summary, in 2026, the domestic newly - added photovoltaic installation will decline, the overseas market will have different trends, and the polysilicon supply will be controlled within 1.05 million tons [45]. Trading Logic Analysis - Similar to the trading logic in the preface summary, the terminal demand for polysilicon is likely to decline in 2026. Anti - involution and industry self - discipline will raise the price center, with the price difficult to fall below 45,000 yuan/ton and the high - end price referring to 75,000 yuan/ton [46]. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips. - Arbitrage: As anti - involution in the polysilicon industry continues and production decreases, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [46].