工业硅年度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - If the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is perfectly executed, the demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream sectors and exports will decline by 5.61% year - on - year to 4 million and 50 thousand tons in 2026. Without supply - side policies, the over - capacity pattern of industrial silicon remains unchanged, and the supply in 2026 will remain loose, with an expected output of about 4 million and 10 thousand tons. The inventory structure will play a stronger role in determining the price of industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to change little compared with 2025 [4][54]. - In 2026, the industrial silicon futures will be mainly priced based on cost, with the price range mainly considering the cost in the northwest and the marginal cost of high - cost enterprises in the southwest during the wet season, referring to (7,400, 10,000). The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fall first and then rise throughout the year. If supply - side policies are introduced, the price of industrial silicon will experience a large - scale unilateral increase [5][54]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary Supply - Demand Outlook - If the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is perfectly executed, the demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream sectors and exports will decline by 5.61% year - on - year to 405 tons in 2026. Without supply - side policies, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged, and the supply in 2026 will remain loose, with an expected output of about 410 tons. The total inventory of the industrial silicon industry is expected to maintain at 1 million tons, and the inventory structure will have a stronger influence on the price. The cost of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to change little compared with 2025 [4]. Trading Logic - In 2026, the industrial silicon futures will be mainly priced based on cost, with the price range referring to (7,400, 10,000). After the futures price rises in December 2025, silicon plants in the northwest may conduct a new round of hedging and maintain a high operating rate in the first quarter of 2026. With the weakening demand in the first quarter of 2026, the futures price may decline. After the second quarter, attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and downstream demand. The price of industrial silicon futures is expected to fall first and then rise throughout the year. If supply - side policies are introduced, the price of industrial silicon will have a large - scale unilateral increase [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: There may be a decline in the first quarter. After the second quarter, pay attention to the inventory structure and cost changes. Operate within the annual price range of (7,400, 10,000). - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon. - Spot - futures: The leading effect of spot - futures business is becoming more obvious. Moderately compress the unit profit expectation. Consider scale priority and channel protection while controlling risks [6]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation Market Review - January - June 2025: High inventory and cost collapse led to a unilateral decline. In January, industrial silicon enterprises reduced production, but downstream replenishment demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. After February, organic silicon enterprises jointly reduced production, and polysilicon demand was weak. In March, although some enterprises planned to reduce production, new production capacity increased marginal supply. From April to May, Sino - US tariff frictions, the collapse of polysilicon and organic silicon prices, and the decline of coking coal prices led to cost collapse. The futures price was priced according to the cash cost of northwest manufacturers, and the lowest price in early June was below 7,000 yuan/ton [9]. - June - August 2025: The recovery of demand and the increase in cost driven by the strengthening of coal prices led to a rebound in the futures price. In early June, the futures price reached the cash cost line of self - supplied power plants in the northwest, and the basis strengthened. After the rebound of coking coal prices, short - selling funds took profits and left the market. In late June, the expectation of "anti - involution" increased, and the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures strengthened. In July, the price of polysilicon futures continued to rise, and the increase in coal prices further pushed up the cost. After the price soared, silicon plants conducted intensive hedging. In August, although the demand for polysilicon was strong, the market was still in an over - supply state, and the futures price followed the decline of coking coal prices [10]. - September - December 2025: There was no prominent contradiction in the fundamentals, and the market was priced based on cost, showing a volatile trend. Since September, industrial silicon inventory has increased slightly, but the inventory is mainly concentrated in the hands of traders, and the market is difficult to form a positive or negative cash - futures cycle. The market trend is similar to that of coking coal [11]. Demand - In 2026, the demand growth rate of organic silicon for industrial silicon will slow down. The traditional construction industry has been in a downturn since 2022, and the photovoltaic industry has also entered a downturn since 2025. The new energy vehicle industry is expected to maintain its prosperity in 2026, but the subsidy decline may lead to a slowdown in demand growth. The overseas photovoltaic component production capacity is increasing, and the export of domestic photovoltaic components is difficult to increase year - on - year. The production process improvement of organic silicon enterprises will also reduce the demand for industrial silicon [18][19]. - In 2026, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon will decrease by 20% year - on - year. If the self - discipline initiative of polysilicon enterprises is effectively implemented, the production of polysilicon in 2026 will be limited to within 1.05 million tons. Even if the initiative is not effectively implemented, polysilicon enterprises will focus on inventory reduction and cash flow maintenance, which will lead to a reduction in demand for industrial silicon [25]. - The demand growth rate of aluminum alloy is stable, but exports are under pressure. The total demand for aluminum alloy may maintain an increasing trend, with an expected growth rate of about 5%. The export of industrial silicon has decreased year - on - year in 2025, and the export regulations have become more stringent since October. The overseas market space may be compressed in 2026, and it is optimistically expected that the export volume will not increase year - on - year [26][28]. - Overall, if the polysilicon industry's self - discipline is strictly implemented, the total demand for industrial silicon in 2026 may decline by 5.61% to 405 tons. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 will be under pressure, and it may increase in the second quarter [29][31]. Supply - In 2026, the new production capacity of industrial silicon is limited. The total production capacity of projects with high probability of production in 2026 is about 400 thousand tons [31]. - The expectation of supply - side policies for industrial silicon is strong. The policies mainly focus on energy consumption constraints and the elimination of small - furnace capacity. Stricter energy consumption standards may impose hard constraints on supply, and the elimination of furnaces below 12,500KVA will significantly reduce the production capacity in the short term [34]. - In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will decrease year - on - year. The actual effective production capacity of industrial silicon in 2026 will reach 8 million tons, but the supply mainly depends on regional profits and the inventory storage capacity of middle - stream traders. The silicon plants in the northwest have strong operating resilience, some silicon plants in the southwest still have the motivation to operate, and the inventory storage capacity of traders has room for increase. It is estimated that the supply of mainstream grades of industrial silicon in 2026 will be about 4.1 million tons [37][40]. Cost - In 2026, the domestic coal supply will be relatively stable under the dual effects of "anti - involution" and supply guarantee, and the coal price is difficult to have large - scale fluctuations. The supply of silica is sufficient, and its price is also difficult to rise. Overall, the cost of industrial silicon in 2026 will not be lower than that in 2025, nor will it increase significantly [45]. Inventory - In 2026, the industrial silicon market will still be in an over - supply situation and will be mainly priced based on cost, with more structural market conditions. The evolution of the inventory structure may lead to positive or negative cash - futures cycles and increase the price volatility [49]. Part Three: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply - demand outlook is consistent with the content in the preface summary, emphasizing that the demand will decline, the supply will remain loose, the inventory structure will have a stronger influence on the price, and the cost will change little [54]. - Trading logic is the same as that in the preface summary, indicating that the futures will be priced based on cost, the price will fall first and then rise, and the introduction of supply - side policies will lead to a large - scale unilateral increase in price [54]. - Operation strategies include unilateral operation within the price range, arbitrage of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon, and spot - futures business considering scale and channel while controlling risks [55][57].