Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-31 10:05Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the paper pulp market showed a pattern of "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." The supply increment will significantly narrow in 2026, with global commodity pulp slightly increasing and China's imports expected to remain flat. The demand for cultural paper will decline further, while that for tissue paper and white cardboard will perform well. The cost of domestic broadleaf pulp will rise, and the price will range from 4,000 to 4,600 yuan, showing a "high in the front, low in the back, strong broadleaf, and stable softwood" trend [5][75][76]. - The supply - demand situation of offset paper in 2025 was "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to continue to decline, the utilization rate will drop below 50%, and the market competition will intensify. The apparent consumption may decline further, and the cost will be pushed up by high - price pulp. The old production lines will be forced to exit [5][78][80]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Paper Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - From January to early February, the prices of paper pulp futures and spot rose synchronously, driven by factors such as continuous price support from the external market, "hoarding and price support" by traders after the festival, and the boost from the futures market sentiment [10]. - From mid - February to April, the price of paper pulp entered a downward channel, mainly due to the less - than - expected recovery of downstream demand, high port inventory, and the price inversion between the external market and domestic spot [11]. - From May to the end of July, the paper pulp market fluctuated widely, with the core contradiction being the game between short - term benefits and long - term weak reality [11][13][14]. - From August to mid - October, the paper pulp market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "weak softwood and stable broadleaf," which was caused by the difference in supply - demand structure [15]. - From late October to the end of December, the market differentiation further intensified, showing a pattern of "weak softwood and strong broadleaf," and the price gradually stabilized in shock at the end of the year [16]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply: High Imports, Increased Domestic Production, and Overall High Inventory - Global Import Situation Analysis: In 2025, the total import of wood pulp increased, with a significant increase in broadleaf pulp and a moderate increase in softwood pulp. The import price fluctuated downward. In 2026, the import volume will decline slightly year - on - year, and the proportion of broadleaf pulp is expected to continue to increase [30][33][35]. - Domestic Capacity Change Analysis: In 2025, the actual domestic pulp production capacity reached 425 tons, with a profit ranking of "chemi - thermomechanical pulp > broadleaf pulp > softwood pulp." In 2026, the planned production capacity is 345 tons, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, with broadleaf pulp as the core incremental source. The cash cost will become the bottom line of the spot price [37][38][40]. - Domestic Inventory Change Analysis: As of December 2025, the domestic paper pulp inventory showed a differentiated situation of "de - stocking in ports and passive inventory accumulation upstream." In the first quarter of 2026, the port inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, but the overall inventory center is expected to be lower than that in the same period of 2024 [43]. - Summary of Core Features of the Supply Pattern: The overall supply will remain loose, the structural differentiation will intensify, and the inventory pressure will still exist [44][45][46]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand: Weak Cultural Paper, Improved Packaging and Tissue Paper - White Cardboard: In 2025, the production and sales of white cardboard increased, and the export was outstanding. In 2026, the demand for paper pulp is expected to increase steadily [50][51]. - Cultural Paper: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was weak, dragging down the consumption of paper pulp. In 2026, it will still be in a weak recovery state, and it is difficult to significantly improve [51][52]. - Tissue Paper: In 2025, the demand for paper pulp in the tissue paper industry increased rapidly. In 2026, it will continue to grow steadily, becoming a key force to offset the decline in cultural paper demand [52][53]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - Spot Price Market: The price of offset paper fluctuated downward throughout 2025, and stabilized at a low level at the end of the year. There was no obvious regional differentiation, and the market trading was light [54]. - Futures Price Market: The newly - listed cultural paper futures showed a weak trend of range - bound fluctuations, with low trading volume and volatility, and were affected by both capital sentiment and spot prices [55][58]. 5. Cultural Paper Supply Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had a large increase in production capacity but a decline in demand, with low capacity utilization, high inventory, and poor profitability. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, but the output is expected to decline further, and the industry will still be in the "capacity - reduction" stage [60][62][63]. 6. Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - Import and Export: In 2025, the import of cultural paper continued to be sluggish, and the export showed a structural differentiation. The overall role of export in making up for domestic demand was limited [70]. - Downstream Demand: In 2025, the demand for cultural paper was mainly supported by the publishing industry, but the support was weak, and the commercial printing demand was weak [71]. 7. Paper Pulp Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the paper pulp supply - demand pattern was "increasing foreign supply, decreasing domestic supply, strong broadleaf, and weak softwood." In 2026, the supply increment will narrow, the demand structure will change, and the cost will rise [75][76]. 8. Paper Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the pressure of South American shipments in the second quarter and domestic production capacity release in the fourth quarter, and appropriately arrange short positions at high prices [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities under the impact of the near - month market [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77]. 9. Offset Paper Fundamental Comprehensive Analysis - In 2025, the offset paper industry had "increasing quantity but not profit." In 2026, the production capacity will increase, but the output is expected to decline, and the market competition will intensify [78][80]. 10. Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral trading: The market is likely to fluctuate widely around the cost line of large - scale enterprises. Generally, the idea of shorting at high prices should be adopted [81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Appropriate attention can be paid to the pulp - offset paper arbitrage of shorting papermaking profits [81]. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [81].