2026年社会服务行业投资策略报告：向阳花木易为春-20251231

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in China's consumption structure from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services, with experience-driven service consumption expected to be a major growth engine. The current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery. The central economic work conference continues to prioritize domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with consumption policies remaining stable. However, due to adjustments in household balance sheets, a fundamental recovery will take time, and the social service sector is expected to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026. Long-term growth prospects for service consumption are promising, driven by the demands of Generation Z and the elderly population [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of 2025, domestic service consumption has risen to 47%, entering a rapid growth phase and becoming a major component of household consumption. The long-term stability and focus of policies on service consumption have been emphasized, with the current sector's price-to-earnings ratio still below the five-year average, indicating room for recovery [3][12][16]. - The travel sector is experiencing pressure on revenue, with notable disparities in performance among tourist attractions. The introduction of extended holiday periods and the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system are expected to enhance travel demand and improve industry conditions [3][42][43]. - The duty-free market is undergoing significant changes, with the introduction of international duty-free retailers and airport equity investments expected to revitalize the market. Policy benefits and the closure effect are catalyzing a surge in duty-free consumption on the islands [3][42]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The report identifies a structural change in consumption driven by the needs of Generation Z and the elderly population. These demographics are expected to significantly influence service consumption trends, with Generation Z favoring emotional value and personalized experiences, while the elderly market is expanding due to increasing demand for healthcare and leisure services [3][39][41]. - The rise of new consumption platforms is enhancing user engagement and efficiency in service consumption, with concert events and sports competitions becoming key drivers of market expansion [4][39]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The government's focus on boosting consumption and optimizing supply-demand structures is evident in the 2025 government work report, which prioritizes expanding domestic demand. The policy direction is expected to remain stable into 2026, with an emphasis on both demand-side stimulation and supply-side optimization [17][20]. - Various measures have been introduced to support service consumption, including financial incentives for service industry operators and initiatives to enhance service quality and accessibility [21][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts, such as travel-related companies, duty-free leaders in the Hainan Free Trade Port, and chain restaurants poised for expansion. Additionally, early investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts are recommended [2][41].