固定收益点评报告：制造业PMI重返扩张区间

Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report focusing on the PMI data in December 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In December, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, rising by 0.9 and returning to the expansion range for the first time since April; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, up 0.7 month - on - month. The PMI data shows that under the influence of pre - holiday effects, domestic demand expansion policies, and price transmission due to anti - involution deepening, enterprises' operating pressure, production expectations, demand side, and production expansion willingness have all improved. It is necessary to continuously monitor the sustainability of domestic demand improvement and policy strength [2][4] Section Summaries Manufacturing - Business Conditions: The production index increased significantly by 1.7 to 51.7, and the new order index rose by 1.6 to 50.8, with the new export order index up 1.4 to 49. Enterprises' production and operation enthusiasm increased notably, with the raw material inventory rising 0.5 to 47.8, the procurement volume up 0.6 to 51.1, and the production and operation activity expectation up 2.4 to 55.5. From an industry perspective, industries such as农副 food processing, textile and clothing, and computer communication and electronic equipment had both production and demand above 53, while industries like non - metallic mineral products and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing had both indexes below the critical point [3] - Profitability: The purchase price of raw materials decreased by 0.5, and the ex - factory price index increased by 0.7, indicating marginal improvement in corporate profits [3] - Enterprise Size: The business conditions of large enterprises rebounded above the boom - bust line. In December, the PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises changed by 1.5, 0.9, and - 0.5 respectively, reaching 50.8, 49.8, and 48.6 [3] - Key Industries: The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods industries, and raw material industries changed by 2.4, 0.6, 1.0, and 0.5 respectively, reaching 52.5, 50.4, 50.4, and 48.9 [3] Non - manufacturing - Construction Industry: In December, the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.8, up 3.2 month - on - month, and returned above the boom - bust line, showing strong resilience [3] - Service Industry: The business activity index of the service industry was 49.7, up 0.2, indicating some pressure [3] Investment Suggestions - The December PMI data shows comprehensive improvement in enterprises' operating pressure, production expectations, demand side, and production expansion willingness. It is recommended to continuously monitor the sustainability of domestic demand improvement and policy strength [4]