燃气行业2026年度投资策略：阵痛转型步入尾声业务重构开启新机

Global LNG Market Overview - The global LNG market is undergoing a transformation, with significant capacity expansion expected to release in 2026, while demand growth may slow in 2025 before slightly rebounding in 2026. This supply-demand balance is likely to lead to a downward trend in global natural gas prices [3][57] - The average spot price for Northeast Asia LNG is projected to be between $9.5 and $11.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, while the TTF average is expected to be between $8.5 and $10.5 per MMBtu, indicating a clear downward trend [3][60] Domestic Gas Supply and Cost Improvement - Domestic gas supply structure is improving, with a notable increase in low-cost domestic gas production, which is expected to enhance downstream demand recovery. The cost structure of gas sources from major state-owned oil companies is improving due to lower oil prices, which will benefit downstream gas companies [3][42] - The domestic natural gas production is projected to reach 246.37 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [79] City Gas Companies' Business Optimization - City gas companies are expected to gradually return to a public utility attribute as they focus more on core gas sales and benefit from a stable profit model. This shift is anticipated to enhance profitability and increase dividends [3][42] - The business structure optimization and cost improvements in gas sourcing are expected to lead to a recovery in performance and value for city gas companies [3][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national and regional city gas companies such as China Resources Gas, New Hope Energy, and China Gas, as well as integrated natural gas companies with cost advantages like New Hope Co., Ltd. and Jiu Feng Energy [3][42] - The report also highlights the importance of upstream coalbed methane extraction companies, recommending attention to firms like New Natural Gas and Shouhua Gas [3][42]