2026汽车国补政策点评：两新补贴延续，整体符合预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The 2026 automotive subsidy policy continues the previous framework, providing support for scrapping and replacing vehicles, with subsidies set at 12% of the price for new energy vehicles (up to 20,000 yuan) and 10% for fuel vehicles (up to 15,000 yuan) for scrapping [5][6] - The policy aims to stabilize the automotive market and alleviate consumer hesitation, with a focus on companies in the new car cycle and those making breakthroughs in mid-to-high-end markets and overseas expansion [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Subsidy Policy - The new policy maintains the same conditions for purchasing new cars, subsidy standards, and application requirements as in 2025, with an expansion of the old vehicle scrapping range [6][7] - The scrapping threshold for gasoline vehicles has been relaxed from before June 30, 2012, to before June 30, 2013, and for diesel vehicles from before June 30, 2014, to before June 30, 2015 [6][7] 2. Subsidy Structure - The subsidy structure has shifted from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies, with the maximum limits remaining the same as in 2025 [5][8] - The scrapping subsidy for new energy vehicles is now 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), while for fuel vehicles it is 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [5][8] 3. Market Impact - The continuation of the subsidy policy is expected to provide a safety net for demand, helping to stabilize the automotive market and reduce consumer hesitation [5][6] - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to local governments to ensure the policy can be implemented from January 1 [5][6]