Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear long - position trend, and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of steel products is gradually easing, but the overall domestic demand is weak. The market is in a short - term range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] - Iron ore has a large supply pressure, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of winter - storage replenishment by steel mills, the short - term price is supported, and the future trend is expected to be volatile [3] - Coke and coking coal have abundant carbon - element supply, and although the downstream demand has some resilience, the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress prices. After the price corrects the premium/discount, it still faces fundamental pressure, and there is intensified capital game on the market due to the expectation of stimulus policies [4][6] - For silicon manganese, affected by the rebound of the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the supply and demand are relatively fragile. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7] - For silicon iron, the market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - The thread market is in a weak and volatile state in the off - season. The apparent demand has declined, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The hot - roll demand has recovered, the production has increased slightly, and the de - stocking has accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the profit of steel mills has improved marginally [2] - The real - estate investment decline has continued to expand, the investment growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing has continued to decline, the domestic demand is still weak overall, the steel export remains at a high level, and the December PMI has rebounded to 50.1, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased month - on - month but is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory has continued to accumulate at a high level at the beginning of the week [3] - The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, the iron - water production last week was basically stable, and it is expected to be at the bottom of the stage, with little possibility of further significant reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The fourth round of price reduction has been fully implemented, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream purchases on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] Coking Coal - The price has oscillated during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. Some mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to factors such as safety production and completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price has increased slightly, and the terminal inventory has slightly increased [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has oscillated during the day. Driven by the market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end may change the manganese - ore formula, and the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore may increase [7] - The iron - water production has declined seasonally, the weekly production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Silicon Iron - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The market expects an increase in coal supply, which may lead to a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production has rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, the overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8]
黑色金属日报-20251231
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-31 11:35