2026年宏观策略：牛市扩散期，聚焦景气度

Group 1: Overseas Macro - The U.S. economy is experiencing a K-shaped divergence, with strong AI investment coexisting with weak consumer spending among low-income households [5][48][49] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 2-3 times due to weak non-farm payrolls and cooling inflation, with a dovish new chair expected after Powell's term ends [4][5] - The U.S. stock market remains attractive under a soft landing scenario, with a focus on small-cap tech themes and value in healthcare and finance [4][5] Group 2: Domestic Macro - The domestic economy shows resilience with positive signals such as the activation of existing funds and a potential recovery in PPI, which is expected to turn positive [6][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring about proactive policies, with structural tools and fiscal measures being emphasized [6][7] - Key areas of focus include infrastructure investment acceleration and the recovery of consumer spending supported by government incentives [6][7] Group 3: A-Share Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound driven by improved earnings and valuation, with a focus on the relationship between A-share performance and fundamentals [7][8] - Three main drivers for profit improvement include new production capabilities, recovery from internal competition, and strong overseas demand [7][8] - The market is anticipated to shift from valuation-driven to a dual drive of valuation and earnings, with a focus on PPI trends in Q2 [7][8] Group 4: Sector and Style Analysis - Investment styles are expected to evolve from tech growth to upstream resources and downstream consumption as PPI trends improve [8] - Key sectors to watch include tech growth (AI, storage, military), cyclical recovery (energy, machinery), and consumer recovery (food, home appliances) [8] - The market is likely to see a shift from small-cap to large-cap balance as economic conditions stabilize [8]