生猪期货日报-20251231

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent peak in demand in the live - hog market has passed, and the supply - side contradictions remain to be resolved. However, the low - price shock of hog prices in the short term has increased the enthusiasm of second - round fattening. The price of the live - hog futures LH2603 contract is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a low level [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On December 26, 2025, the live - hog lh2603 contract showed a fluctuating trend, closing at 11,645 points, up 1.48% from the previous settlement price, with a full - day trading volume of 117,200 lots and an open interest of 171,500 lots [2]. - Variety Price: The prices of live - hog futures contracts varied. The total open interest of the variety was 355,353 lots, an increase of 8,016 lots from the previous trading day [4]. - Related Market: The daily trading volume of live - hog options was 35,251 lots, with a total open interest of 63,671 lots, an increase of 3,212 lots in open interest, and 0 lots were exercised on the day [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: The live - hog basis was 205 yuan/ton yesterday and 145 yuan/ton today, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight convergence of the basis [7]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: According to the warehouse receipt report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, there were 863 registered warehouse receipts today, with no change from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry News: Wenhua Finance reported that the spot price was 11.58 yuan/kg yesterday, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm across the country was moderately slow in late December. The previous epidemic situation led to an increase in the slaughter of small and medium - sized pigs, driving a slight decline in the average weight this week. Overall, the contradiction of supply accumulation has not been resolved [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily K - line of the live - hog lh2603 futures closed in a positive line, showing a short - term increase during the day. The K - line broke through the upper track of the BOLL line, and the BOLL line was in an open state [11][12].