2026年国内及海外宏观年报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, China's domestic macro - economy will face challenges and opportunities. Although investment and consumption have pressure, there are many bright spots such as export resilience, industrial structure optimization, and policy support. The fiscal and monetary policies will remain expansionary. Overseas, the global economy will maintain moderate growth with intensified differentiation, and each major economy has its own characteristics and risks [7][81][141] - The recommended asset allocation strategy for 2026 is stocks > commodities > bonds [86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Domestic Macroeconomy 3.1.1 2025 China's Macroeconomic Situation Review - In 2025, China's economy achieved a GDP growth of about 5% with new and old growth drivers changing. Consumption and exports supported the economy, but investment, especially real - estate investment, was a drag. High - tech manufacturing and green products showed strong growth [4][5] 3.1.2 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Challenges and Highlights - Fixed - asset investment: It still faces great pressure. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has declined rapidly since Q2 2025, and real - estate investment has reached a record low. However, the decline rate of real - estate market indicators has slowed down [7][9][12] - Consumption: It is expected to be weakly stable. With policy support, consumption will grow weakly, but factors such as low consumer confidence and income constraints still exist. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is expected to be in the range of 3% - 4% [20][23][24] - Export: It remains resilient. In 2025, China's export share in the world reached a record high. In 2026, although there are challenges, exports are expected to grow by about 5% due to market diversification and industrial chain advantages [27][34][82] - Industrial added value: It is generally stable with progress. In 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by about 5.9%. In 2026, the industrial structure will continue to optimize, and high - tech and equipment manufacturing will be the core driving forces [35][39] - CPI and PPI: CPI will moderately rebound, and PPI's decline will narrow. However, due to insufficient demand, the inflation rebound will be moderate [42][45][49] - Manufacturing PMI: It is expected to improve. In 2025, manufacturing PMI showed resilience. In 2026, with policy support, market demand is expected to recover [50][52] - Employment: The situation is still severe. In 2025, there were structural contradictions in the employment market. In 2026, about 12 million new urban jobs are expected, and policies will promote high - quality employment [55][56] - Other highlights: The automobile market has new opportunities; the M1 - M2 gap is expected to narrow further; the RMB has appreciation pressure; there are signs of "deposit relocation" [58][60][63] 3.1.3 Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Fiscal policy: It will continue to be more proactive in 2026, with an emphasis on expanding the scale of fiscal expenditure and improving efficiency. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain at about 4% [70][74][75] - Monetary policy: It will maintain a "moderately loose" tone. There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and more attention will be paid to the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies [77] 3.1.4 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook - Fixed - asset investment growth is expected to be about 1.5%. Manufacturing investment will decline slowly, infrastructure investment will grow by about 5%, and real - estate investment will still be a drag [81] - Consumption will continue to bottom out, with the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in the range of 3% - 4% [81] - Exports are expected to grow by about 5%, and the trade surplus will remain above $1 trillion [82] - The CPI growth rate is expected to be around 0.5% - 1%, and it is difficult for PPI to turn into large - scale positive growth [82] 3.1.5 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - Stocks > Commodities > Bonds. Stocks or stock index futures long positions can be held; commodities such as precious metals will remain strong, and the bull market may spread; bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [85][86] 3.2 Overseas Macroeconomy 3.2.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Situation Review - In 2025, the global economy grew moderately with differentiation. Developed economies grew weakly, while emerging markets became the main growth engine. AI and green energy investment became new growth drivers [87][88] 3.2.2 United States - In 2026, the US economy will grow moderately, inflation is expected to decline slightly, and employment will be weakly stable. However, it faces risks such as tariff policies, employment market problems, inflation resilience, and debt pressure [91][92][93] - The Fed will move towards a "neutral interest rate", and the government will maintain an "expansionary fiscal" policy, but policy coordination may be insufficient [100][101] 3.2.3 Eurozone - In 2026, the Eurozone economy will grow moderately, inflation will decline, and employment will improve slightly. It will be driven by domestic demand improvement, AI investment, and fiscal stimulus, but faces risks such as trade friction, geopolitics, and internal structural contradictions [106][107][112] - The European Central Bank will maintain a neutral interest rate, and the EU will promote fiscal coordination [121] 3.2.4 Japan - In 2026, Japan's economy will have a mild recovery, inflation will be stable, policies will tighten, and structural transformation will occur. It will face challenges such as weak domestic and external demand, high debt, and global trade uncertainty [125][126][135] - Japan will adopt a combination of "gradually tightening monetary policy + active fiscal policy" [136][139] 3.2.5 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - In 2026, the global economy will maintain moderate growth with intensified differentiation. Emerging markets will grow at 4.0%, and developed economies at 1.6%. Risks such as trade protectionism, geopolitics, debt risks, and climate crises are intertwined [141]