石油沥青专题：原油端风险发酵，市场底部信号显现

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Views - As the situation in South America worsens with the US escalating military actions against Venezuela, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined, increasing risks for non-US buyers [1] - With the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt market is gradually strengthening. However, the actual fundamentals remain weak. The potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to an increase in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in the asphalt spot and futures markets. If the raw material problem is disproven, the asphalt market will face significant resistance next year due to loose fundamentals and weak oil price expectations [1] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the single-side, focus on the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices and avoid chasing the rise. For the inter-period spread, pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads (BU2603 - BU2606) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs US Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Increases Risks in Asphalt Raw Material Supply - This year, the US sanctions on Venezuela have changed, affecting Venezuelan oil supply and pricing, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. For example, in January, the US froze PDVSA's $7 billion assets in the US; in March, it imposed a 25% secondary tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil; in May, it revoked the oil exploration and export licenses of some companies; in July, it issued a limited "new general license" to Chevron [7] - In the first half of the year, the US sanctions on Venezuela mainly focused on the economic level, especially the change in oil license permissions, which led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports to Europe and the US, and more resources flowed to Asia. In the second and third quarters, the arrival volume of Venezuelan oil in China increased, the raw material supply became more abundant, and the cost support for the asphalt market weakened [8] - In the fourth quarter, the US actions against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. Since September, the US has carried out a series of military actions, and in December, it seized two Venezuelan oil tankers. As a result, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined recently, and the floating storage and in-transit inventory of Merey crude oil have increased significantly. If the US blockade continues, the supply of Venezuelan oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may face a significant increase in raw material costs [9][11] Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low-priced resources. However, the terminal demand was weak, putting pressure on the spot market. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, some refineries have switched to producing residual oil, and the supply pressure in the market has eased marginally. The spot market in the northern region has stabilized first. The escalation of the Venezuelan situation has increased concerns about the raw material side, stimulating the enthusiasm of downstream procurement and warehousing [21] - The South China market has been weaker. Recently, major refineries have released more supply, and the downstream has difficulty digesting it. The spot price has continued to decline, reaching around 2,800 yuan/ton. As the asphalt futures market is affected by the raw material sentiment, the basis in the South China region has decreased, and the spot-futures arbitrage window has opened, stimulating spot buying. After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in the South China region has decreased, and the market pressure has eased [21]