南华期货2026年铝产业链年度展望：冰火两重天

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Alumina - The core contradiction in alumina prices lies in the supply side. In 2026, the oversupply situation may continue, and the cost line may become the price game line. The price center of alumina is expected to shift downward compared to this year [2]. - It is recommended to pay attention to news related to alumina enterprise maintenance and production, and adopt a short - selling approach when the fundamentals remain unchanged [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2026, macro and supply conditions will be important factors affecting electrolytic aluminum prices. The macro environment is expected to remain loose, highlighting the anti - depreciation financial attribute of aluminum. With limited domestic supply increment and uncertain overseas supply, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review Alumina - In 2025, the actual supply increase of alumina exceeded expectations, while the demand increment was limited. The price first declined, then rebounded due to supply disruptions, and finally returned to a weak trend [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market showed a pattern of "oscillating upward and rising center of gravity", reaching a new high since 2022 at the end of the year [7]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points Alumina - Bauxite: In 2025, bauxite supply was sufficient, with high imports and inventory accumulation, and weak prices. In 2026, the supply is expected to remain abundant, and the price may continue to be weak, with a trading range of 60 - 75 dollars/ton [11][13]. - Alumina: In 2025, global alumina supply expanded significantly, and the oversupply situation continued. In 2026, there are many planned new production increments at home and abroad, and the average industry cost may decline [15][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - China's supply: China's electrolytic aluminum is subject to a 45 - million - ton/year capacity ceiling. In 2025, production mainly came from the resumption of previous - reduced production capacity. In 2026, the capacity increment is small, and the import of Russian aluminum is expected to continue [21][25]. - Overseas supply: In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum had both production increases and decreases. In 2026, the supply is expected to be in a state of slow recovery and limited expansion, with Indonesia being the main source of new capacity, but there are uncertainties in power supply [27][29]. - Macro environment: In 2026, the macro environment is expected to remain loose, and the financial attribute of aluminum against depreciation will be prominent, providing upward momentum for aluminum prices [33]. Chapter 4: Supply - Demand Outlook Alumina - Supply: Bauxite supply is expected to remain abundant in 2026, and the oversupply of alumina is predictable, with new production capacity concentrated in Indonesia, India, and southern China [35]. - Demand: The downstream demand for alumina is mainly for electrolytic aluminum smelting. With limited supply increment of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the demand for alumina is difficult to find bright spots [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply: Domestic supply increment is limited due to the capacity ceiling, and overseas supply is in a state of slow recovery and limited expansion, with uncertainties in new production capacity and possible production cuts [36][37]. - Demand: - Real estate: The drag on aluminum consumption from real estate is expected to slow down in 2026, with a narrowing decline in the completion side [38]. - New energy vehicles: Although the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may slow down in 2026, the future aluminum consumption increment is still considerable [40]. - Power grid investment: Power grid investment is expected to maintain stable growth during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [42]. - Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic installation is expected to experience negative growth in 2026, dragging down aluminum consumption [44].